733 FXUS65 KABQ 190553 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1153 PM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A storm system moving thru CO overnight will keep strong southwest winds aloft centered over NM. Ridge top winds and mt wave activity will allow lcl gusts to reach 45 kt across the northern high terrain. A few rain and snow showers will also move east along the NM/CO state line with brief MVFR cigs thru sunrise. Winds will veer to the west then northwest Tuesday as drier and cooler air filters into the area on clear skies. Most terminals will see peak wind gusts of 25 to 35 kt aft 19Z before winds taper off Tuesday evening. Guyer && .PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT Mon Oct 18 2021... .SYNOPSIS... A storm system moving north of New Mexico tonight will keep light to moderate breezes going. The associated dry cold front will push through central and northern New Mexico Tuesday, resulting in slightly cooling and northwest breezes. More tranquil weather along with a warming trend will get underway Wednesday, continuing through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)... Strong winds aloft rounding the base of an eastward moving upper low, currently over south central NV, will overtake our area tonight into Tuesday morning as the low continues east into CO. Breezy to windy conditions are developing across our area ahead of the upper low, as a lee side trough deepens to 999mb at the surface. The lower boundary layer will remain mixed somewhat overnight, which will lead to above normal lows and the strongest winds likely staying aloft vs being trapped below inversions. That said, we have advisory speeds forecast across the northern mountains above 10K feet, but not a large enough area to warrant the issuance of an advisory. A few showers may hit northwest NM near the CO border overnight into early Tuesday, with locales such as Chama possibly picking up a dusting of snow. The upper low will push a weak cold front through early Tuesday, with highs forecast 5-10 degrees cooler than today's which will be below normal north and west. Breezy to locally windy conditions are forecast again Tuesday, but downslope winds across the east central and southeast plains will keep temperatures above normal there. Winds will decouple Tuesday night and with clear skies we should have ideal radiational cooling conditions with a number of locales forecast to drop below normal for lows. LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Numerical weather prediction models agree that weak and dry zonal flow aloft remains on track for Wednesday and Thursday. A broad ridge of high pressure is then forecast to translate eastward from southern CA and AZ Thursday night and Friday. Models agree that increasing southwest flow aloft moves in for the weekend, resulting in breezy afternoons. GFS and ECMWF agree that the deep and broad trough off the British Columbia and PACNW coast responsible for the wind increases, will remain mostly north of NM early next week. High temperatures are forecast to remain slightly above to above average for late October. Ensemble members from both the GFS and ECWMF continue to show the potential for the MJO to strengthen as it translates eastward into the EPAC. The SST gradient near 5 degrees N latitude in the EPAC is favorable despite a strengthening La Nina. Let's hope. 11/33 && .FIRE WEATHER... Stronger winds are developing across the area in advance of a potent upper low and associated cold front. Spotty critical fire weather conditions are likely later this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon across northeast NM. Vent rates will be good to excellent through Tuesday, then trend down to poor/fair on Wednesday as a stable atmosphere sets up with a ridge building overhead. Pressure heights will then continue to trend up, along with temperatures, through the end of the work week with lighter winds and continued poor/fair vent rates. The ridge will flatten out and give way to moderate westerlies over the weekend, meaning afternoon breeziness and continued above normal temperatures with improved vent rates. 11 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$