603 FXUS62 KILM 190523 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 123 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cool, dry Canadian air will remain across the Carolinas for the next couple of days as high pressure slowly moves eastward. As the high moves offshore Wednesday, winds will shift southwesterly and temperatures will rebound above normal. Cooler temperatures will return next weekend as another cold front passes offshore early Saturday. && .UPDATE... High pressure across the southern Appalachians should be close enough to the eastern Carolinas to kill the boundary layer winds tonight. Winds at 1000 feet AGL were 15-20 knots last night but should fall to 10 knots or less tonight. This should allow a strong radiational inversion to develop. I've lowered low temp forecasts near the beaches and at a few inland locations by a couple degrees, lowered wind speeds by a few mph, and accentuated forecast radiational cooling across peat/pocosin soils where a few spots (like Holly Shelter Gameland) could dip into the 30s again before daybreak. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows a 1025mb center of high pressure near Nashville, TN. Quiet near term forecast, as said high pressure edges eastward into Appalachia. Low temperatures should dip into the mid 40s tonight, with lower 40s possible in some of the cold spots in parts of Pender, Bladen, and Williamsburg Counties. However, even with radiational cooling, lows should not quite be as chilly as the previous night. Plenty of sunshine on tap for Tuesday, with likely no clouds in sight. Highs generally in the mid 70s. Winds build more of a WSW component Tuesday night, causing low temperatures to only bottom out to near 50. Keep those windows open! && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will shift farther off the coast through midweek. With the center to the south, return flow will initially be out of the west through Wed, until a more SW direction takes hold by Wed night into Thurs. Overall, expect warming through this period with a dry start but increasing moisture and clouds, mainly late Thurs into early Fri. Pcp water will increase from less than a half inch Wed into early Thurs, but reaching up to 1.35 inches by Fri morning. Not counting on any pcp until Fri morning, the earliest. Temps will be into the low 80s on Thurs with overnight lows increasing quite a bit from mid 50s most places Wed night to 60s Thurs night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Broad mid level flow will push a cold front through the Carolinas late Fri into Sat. Increasing southerly flow and deeper layer moisture ahead of the approaching cold front on Fri, will bring a chance of rain back in the forecast. Not expecting any widespread heavy rain, but should see sct shwrs/tstms. Latest models show almost a zonal flow through the weekend as the broad trough lifts northward. Therefore not expecting any major change in airmass with temps remaining within a few degrees of 80, several degrees above normal. A weak low may develop over the Carolinas but an overall ill defined pressure pattern will remain through early next week. May see some clouds around over the weekend, but next chc of rain should come late Mon as next cold front drops down from the north. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR through Tonight. Light and variable winds this morning will become onshore at coastal sites in the afternoon. Calm winds return in the evening. Extended Outlook...VFR, except for a low chance of ceiling or visibility restrictions in convective showers Friday into Friday night. && .MARINE... Through Tuesday night...Northerly winds around 10kts become more variable by Tuesday afternoon, building a more WSW component by Tuesday evening. Seas mostly 1ft, with a few 2ft waves possible tonight into Tuesday morning, with easterly swells mixing with northerly wind waves. Wednesday through Friday...High pressure will shift farther off the Southeast coast Wed through Fri. The center of the high will remain south of the waters leaving an offshore westerly flow initially on Wed, but will shift to a more SW direction by Thurs as high moves farther offshore. Gradient tightens enough to produce an increase in winds from 5 to 10 kts on Wed up to 15 kts or so late Thurs into Fri. The southerly push will give way to seas up from 2 ft or less on Wed up to around 3 ft by Fri. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III MARINE...RGZ/IGB