087 FXUS64 KLZK 190444 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1144 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 .AVIATION... Updated for the 06Z terminals... High pressure with some high clouds will continue over the area. VFR conditions will continue through the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 222 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021) SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday At mid-afternoon, weak ridging/quasi-zonal flow was noted at the mid and upper levels over Arkansas with strong surface ridging in place to the east of the region. This pattern was bringing fair skies and light winds to the area with surface dew points generally in the lower to mid 40s. This pattern will remain mostly unchanged tonight through Tuesday before a strong trough of low pressure pushes into the northern/central Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday. The approaching trough will cause the mid/upper flow to become southwesterly while surface pressures decrease and weak southerly low level flow develops. This increasing southerly flow will bring a bit of additional warming all areas Wednesday along with some weak moisture advection. This increase in moisture will bring the potential for some isolated showers, or perhaps a thunderstorm, to develop over the northern higher terrain Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon will generally range from the upper 60s over the northern higher terrain to the upper 70s over the far south. Highs on Wednesday will range from the lower 70s over the northern higher terrain to the lower 80s over the far south. LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Sunday Night Wednesday into Thursday... A cold front pushes its way into Arkansas, but this boundary will not bring such a contrast in temperatures that we saw with the previous front that provided us with the Fall-like temperatures we have enjoyed over the past weekend. The greatest impact will be a chance of rain that will be seen ahead of the FROPA, predominantely across northwestern sections of the CWA. On Thursday, the boundary stalls out across the I-40 corridor in Arkansas and keeps high temperatures north of I-40 overall below 80 degrees and as low as the lower 70's toward the AR/MO border while south of I-40 will experience temperatures overall above 80 and pushing the upper 80's for high temperatures. Friday... Southerly flow returns by the afternoon timeframe and advects higher dew point temperatures back into the state (upper 50's/lower 60's) along with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80's across the central and southern portion and the mid to upper 70's across the northern portion of the state. Saturday/Sunday/Sunday Night... A surface low pressure and warm front in western Kansas allows a stronger contengency of southerly flow to advect even higher dew point values and air temperatures values into the state. The warm front will begin its retreat northward early Saturday across central Arkansas giving the CWA a chance for isolated precipitation (rain showers across the state) just north of the retreating warm front. Saturday high temperatures return to the mid 80's across southern and central Arkansas with far northern Arkansas holding onto upper 70's for high temperatures. On Sunday, the surface low pressure moves into northwestern Kansas and the warm front drapes itself across northern portions of Kansas and Missouri allowing for more moisture and warmer temperatures to be transported into the CWA. High temperatures mimic Saturday's above normal high temperatures overwhelmingly in the 80's with some locations in the southern CWA nearing 90. Sunday Night, muggy conditions persist with dew point temperatures in the mid/upper 60's and air temperatures only managing to fall into the low 70's/upper 60's. && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...51/57