488 
FXUS63 KOAX 190440
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

...Updated for 06Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

Water vapor imagery this afternoon showing a well amplified ridge 
over the central CONUS along with an upstream shortwave trough 
moving across the Great Basin. 

Going forecast seems to be in good shape so no major changes 
planned. Tuesday looking to be another day with plenty of sun and
gusty southerly winds. The aforementioned system to the west is 
progged to be pushing across WY/CO by Tuesday afternoon. 
Increasing DPVA eventually induces surface cyclogenesis over 
northeast CO with precip breaking out over southeast WY/southwest 
SD. As of now, models are in good agreement best omega will reside
north of the CWA with the main axis of precip found within SD. 
The system though will be close enough to justify small POPs on 
Wednesday for light rain over portions of northeast NE. 

Dry conditions prevail then Wednesday night through Saturday with a 
noticeable cool down in response to a cooler air mass filling in 
behind the exiting system. Small precip chances return late Saturday 
night ahead of the next wave moving into the region. 

Tue - mid/upper 70s 
Wed - mid 50s/lower 60s 
Thu - mid/upper 50s 
Fri - mid 50s/lower 60s 
Sat - mid 50s/mid 60s 
Sun - upper 50s/mid 60s

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021

The main issue overnight will be low level wind shear. That should
weaken toward sunrise. Look for winds to become a bit gusty again
by Tuesday afternoon. We just expect some variable high clouds
until early evening, when isolated -SHRA or -TSRA could develop. 
Chances are too low to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DEE
AVIATION...Miller