905 FXUS61 KBGM 190439 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1239 AM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Lake effect rain showers will continue to diminish this evening to end around midnight. Skies will clear from west to east tonight, with sunny and much warmer conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 am update... A couple of light showers are passing through Otsego and Delaware Counties. Continue a slight chance of PoPs for the next couple of hours, but this shower activity should wrap up within the next couple of hours. There continues to be some clouds extending off of the lake with areas of clear skies. Sky cover was updated based on satellite. Otherwise, minor changes made to winds and temps as those were already close to the forecast. 930 pm update... Very little change. 615 pm update... Made changes to better match what is happening. Lake effect showers will continue to diminish this evening but a few in CNY should last until midnight before ending. Thick clouds now over much of the area but clearing already evident in western NY. Lowered the minimum temperature late tonight by about 2 degrees. Much of CNY and NEPA will be in the mid and upper 30s. Frost is not expected with clearing late and still some wind. 330 PM Update... Lake effect rain showers continue across most of CNY into the Catskills this afternoon as the coldest pocket of 850 mb temperatures pass overhead. Tonight ridging builds in with warm air advection bringing an end to the lake effect rain a few hours after sunset. Winds become more westerly overnight so the flow off of the Lakes ends and the skies clearing from west to east. While the winds stay elevated for most of the region tonight, some of the sheltered valleys in the Catskills and along the Twin Tiers could see some frost if the winds can go calm for a few hours. 850 mb temps warm to 7-8C tomorrow afternoon with highs getting 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today. Winds will be gusty in the afternoon as the mixed layer deepens and brings down some of the stronger winds aloft. High clouds increase in the afternoon and evening helping to limit radiational cooling tomorrow night keeping overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 304 pm update... Main concerns in the short term are focused on the mild temperatures through the middle of the week and the onset of the next round of rain showers Thursday morning and even the potential for a few weak thunderstorms in the afternoon. Weak ridging aloft and a surface high over the Northeast will allow the dry weather conditions to continue most of the day Wednesday and Wed night. Plenty of sun and warm air under the ridge will cause temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s and even a few lower 70s as well Wed afternoon. Cloud cover will increase Wed night as the next short wave approaches from the west. A warm front extending to the east of the system will lift north across the area early Thursday which could touch off a few rain showers before noon. The surface low will track from the central Great Lakes into southern Quebec during the day Thursday as a cold front extending to the south sweeps across NY and PA. There will be sufficient forcing along this front to trigger a broad but transient area of rain showers through the rest of the day Thursday. Will also need to be concerned about the potential for isolated thunderstorms. Deep layer shear could rise above 40 kt within this dynamic system, but instability could be the limiting factor with ML CAPE values around 100-200 J/kg. Will need to watch this time period closely. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 304 pm update... The cold front will be exiting the region Thursday evening with trailing rain showers continuing into early Friday morning over the Mohawk Valley and nrn Catskills. The pattern will become slightly more convoluted and difficult to predict given the varying solutions from the model guidance, but the overall trend will be a colder one going into the weekend. The synoptic pattern will be generally cyclonic with several weak short waves rotating through Friday through Sunday. The precipitation type will likely be mostly rain, but there could be periods, especially overnight, where the cold air drops south far enough for the rain to mix with snow. Temperatures will be trending downward into the weekend with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s...and daytime highs only reaching into the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure and drier air moves into the region overnight. Mostly VFR conditions should now persist as ceilings continue to lift through the evening, however, there could be brief MVFR ceilings at ITH or BGM, but confidence is too low to include into the forecast. Tomorrow, skies will be mostly clear with VFR conditions at all terminals, winds become gusty out of the west by mid morning, but will be much lighter than today. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Thursday and Friday...Flight restrictions likely due to the next round of rain showers starting later on Thursday. Saturday...Possible restrictions from lake effect showers but mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/TAC NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL/TAC SHORT TERM...BJT LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...MPK