566 FXUS63 KFGF 190316 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1016 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1014 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Wind shift/cold front moving into Brandon MB and into far NW ND. It is moving SSE and track would have wind shift into GFK around 09-10z. Clouds to follow about 2 hours later. Upstream cloud cover and heights are not extensive so far but something to watch as short term models insist on bringing in a larger MVFR deck behind front. More of an aviation issue than public. UPDATE Issued at 701 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 High clouds over the area this evening, but thin. Mild out there after a very warm day. Will be watching cold front drop south- southeast from Canada overnight into Tuesday AM. HRRR has it entering NE ND around 06z and near GFK 09z. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Impacts in the short term will be minimal, though temps much cooler, with a dry cold frontal passage expected to bring much cooler weather to the area tomorrow. A quiet and warm evening will be the last of the warmth for awhile with north winds greeting the morning as gusts behind the front set to be 30 to 40mph based on the Bufkit soundings depicting mixing to 950mb of the 30 to 35kts within the blyr CAA and with pressure rise couplet moving down the valley in the wake of the front offering efficient mixing of the downward momentum transfer. Cloudy and much cooler than today with highs 20 to 30 degrees cooler Tuesday, in the 40s and 50s. Late overnight some light rain will attempt to lift into SE ND with the passage of an upper wave across the central plains with most of any accumulation holding off until Wednesdays time frame, covered in the long term section below. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 Highlights of potentially impactful weather within the long term period mainly revolve around the region's first widespread hard freeze of the season likely (70-90%) starting Wednesday night as a seasonable polar air mass moves over the area. Impacts however are likely mitigated by this event's late season occurrence. A progressive Colorado low is still favored to move into the Central Plains of SD/NE east into the Upper Midwest of MN/IA/WI Wednesday. This track slides the northern deformation zone precip shield across southern portions of the FA, with the southern Valley into west-central MN favored for most precip. While there is some signal for maybe some fgen, the overall progressive nature of the low and generally lower amount of available moisture content will limit amounts to the 0.10-0.50 inch range, with some higher amounts in smaller locations likely given signal for fgen within the def zone forcing. Temps are currently forecast to be warm enough to negate general concern for ptype issues, in addition to the precip zapping effects of expected very dry air filtering in behind the low. However, there still may be just enough overlap towards the northern and western edge of the precip shield to mix in some snow flakes, however no impacts are expected given very light amount of snow (if any) and warm ground temps. The seasonably cold, polar air mass behind Tuesday's cold front continues into the Northern Plains fed by northwesterly flow behind the exiting Colorado low, with even perhaps a backdoor cold front its parent upper low into the Great Lakes region late in the week to reinforce this colder air. This air mass along with favorable synoptics to promote radiational cooling within a very dry air mass are driving the likely chances of temperatures at or below 28 degrees during the overnights and mornings of Wed night- Sat morning. While this isn't unusual for this time of year, it is the region's first widespread coverage and multiple days of hard freeze criteria. Given such a late occurrence in this fall season, area agricultural impacts should be mitigated, or rather not unexpected. Getting into next week, clustered ensemble guidance hints at more upper ridging which may help bring temps back to above seasonal averages. NBM is picking up on this with 75th percentile high temps back into the 60s for some locations within the FA. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 701 PM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 After several days of clear weather, will watch cold front drop south across the area late tonight into Tuesday. Short term models all bring a deck of MVFR cigs southward behind the front 1-2 hours after passage. From satellite however, that would seem fast. But short term models have done pretty well in the past with these lower clouds moving in so left its thinking for the TAFs. Gusty north winds 20-30 kts Tues esp E ND/NW MN, much less BJI-FFM areas which will hold onto the south winds into the aftn. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Riddle SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...Riddle