160 FXUS61 KALY 190302 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1102 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough will slowly depart the region tonight with rain showers ending this evening. After a chilly night, high pressure returns tomorrow with a gradual warming trend continuing into Thursday. Cooler conditions and rainfall chances will return by the end of the week as our next system approaches from the west. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 11PM, just some minor updates to the forecast. Skies cleared in the Hudson Valley which allowed temperatures to cool into the low to mid 40s. Night fog and nighttime microphysics channels show clouds developing upstream and expanding along the windward side of the Taconics, Berkshires and Greens. Therefore, still thinking that skies will become partly to mostly cloudy towards 06 UTC and remain as such through 09 UTC before clearing in time for sunrise. Due to variable sky coverage overnight plus somewhat breeze winds, frost should still be hard to come by and therefore did not include in the forecast despite expected lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Previous discussion..Moist cyclonic flow continues as our upper level trough slowly exits into the Canadian Maritimes. The ongoing northwest flow advecting moisture off the lakes has maintained variable cloud coverage over eastern NY and western New England with valley areas becoming partly cloudy while higher terrain areas have maintained mostly cloudy skies. Isolated rain showers are diminishing as well now that we heading deeper into the evening. The RGEM and NAM 3km RH fields suggest that any partly cloudy skies this evening will become mostly cloudy towards 03 - 06 UTC as additional moisture in the 925 - 850 hPa layer rotates into the region. After 09 UTC, moisture fields dry out as subsidence increases aloft in the wake of the exiting trough. This should result in clearing skies with temperatures falling deeper into the low to mid 40s. Some spots in the higher terrain of the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills, Berkshires and southern Greens look to drop into the upper 30s. However, the cloud coverage and ongoing northwest breeze should mitigate any frost formation. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The short-term period will consist of an upper-level ridge and surface high pressure situated across the eastern CONUS. This will result in two days of dry weather and a gradual warming trend as temperatures increase aloft. An increase in wind magnitudes aloft will lead to a gusty westerly wind both Tuesday and Wednesday with occasional gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible during the afternoon hours. These gusts will be favored along the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District into the Berkshires. Highs on Tuesday will reach the 50s in the higher elevations to the lower to mid-60s in the valleys. With a light breeze continuing Tuesday night, it will not be as chilly with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Highs Wednesday reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in the higher elevations to the upper 60s to lower 70s in the valleys. The crest of the ridge will push off to the east Wednesday night as an upper-level shortwave trough approaches from the west. A warm front will be situated near northern areas in which a few showers may be possible before daybreak. Lows Wednesday night will be mainly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Changeable weather through the extended period, with an upper level trough digging into the Great Lakes region, and pieces of upper level energy rotate around it. Uncertainty involves timing of individual disturbances affecting our region, and if any coastal surface wave development occurs. Initially, a cold front looks to approach from the west late Thursday-Thursday night, bringing a round of gusty showers. Will have to watch for any embedded QLCS that develops as well, as mid/upper level kinematics look strong. It also should be quite warm ahead of the front, with high temps reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s, if not warmer in some valley areas. Thursday night lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The front should shift east of the region Friday, with perhaps some lingering lake enhanced rain showers across western areas. Uncertainty then increases for Friday night through Saturday night, as some long term guidance (12Z/18 ECMWF and a few 12Z/18 GEFs members) suggest that a surface wave develops along the frontal boundary south and east of our region, while an upper level disturbance rotates around the incoming upper level trough. For now, have chances for rain showers Saturday due to uncertainty. Highs mainly in the 50s to lower 60s Friday, and 40s and 50s Saturday, with lows Friday night in the 30s and 40s. Some guidance suggests additional shortwave energy approaches from the southwest late Sunday or Monday, possibly bringing additional showers. Will at least keep slight chance PoPs for this possibility. Otherwise, remaining cool with highs Sunday/Monday mainly in the 40s for higher elevations, and lower/mid 50s for valley areas. Overnight lows Monday morning in the 30s, although some 20s are possible across portions of the Adirondacks and southern Greens. It could be even colder Monday night if skies clear out; current lows are in the 20s and 30s, with widespread frost/freeze a possibility. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z/Wed...a cold mid level trough will continue moving east/southeast of the TAF sites overnight. Lingering patches of VFR strato-cu will be possible, and there could be a few patches of MVFR Cigs around or just before daybreak, especially at KPSF. Cloud cover should decrease on Tuesday, other than patches of high/mid level clouds in the afternoon. Winds will be from the west to northwest at 5 to 10 kt overnight, although a few gusts of 15-20 KT may persist at KPSF. West/northwest winds will increase by mid/late Tuesday morning to 8-15 KT and continue until around sunset, with some gusts of 20-25 KT possible, especially at KALB and KPSF. Outlook... Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Friday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper-level trough will slowly depart the region tonight as rain showers come to an end this evening. After a chilly night, high pressure returns on Tuesday with a gradual warming trend which will continue into Thursday. Cooler conditions and rainfall chances will return by the end of the week as our next system approaches from the west. RH values will rise to 85 to 100 percent both tonight and tomorrow night with values dipping to 40 to 60 percent Tuesday afternoon. Wind will be out of the west to northwest at 7 to 14 mph tonight and Tuesday night, and between 10 to 20 mph Tuesday with gusts to around 30 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological issues are anticipated over the next five to seven days. Any lingering showers this evening will come to an end with dry weather returning Tuesday and continuing into Thursday. Our next system will bring chances for rain later this week. Area rivers will hold steady or slowly fall for much of the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun NEAR TERM...Rathbun/Speciale SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL/Thompson FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun HYDROLOGY...Rathbun