363 
FXUS61 KBUF 190154
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
954 PM EDT Mon Oct 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers will linger southeast of Lake Ontario through late 
this evening. Otherwise, high pressure building into the region will 
help to decrease cloud cover through the second half of the night, 
with warmer and drier weather returning Tuesday and Wednesday. A 
cold front will bring widespread showers Thursday, to be followed by 
cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As surface high pressure ridges northeast into our region 
from the Ohio Valley, drier weather will become the story 
tonight. Subsidence and drier air associated with this feature 
will bring clearing skies, especially across western New York. 
With clearing skies and light winds, river valley fog in the 
Southern Tier is likely.

Surface high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley to the Carolina 
coast Tuesday into Wednesday. This will provide a period of fair, 
dry weather along with a warming trend as temperatures rebound back 
into the 60s with even a few lower 70s possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Closed mid level circulation ejecting across the central CONUS 
still forecast to move into the Great Lakes Wednesday night and 
Thursday. Chances for showers will start to increase late 
Wednesday night and especially Thursday into Thursday evening, 
initially tied to a lead corridor of higher moisture followed by
a combination of cold frontal dynamics and increasing height 
falls, then potentially some lake enhancement on a cooling 
westerly flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will exit the region to the east Friday morning. A 
northerly flow will move into the region as showers continue through 
the day. An upper level trough will move overhead and cold air aloft 
will move into the region. Temperatures at 850mb will fall below 0C 
and lake induced instability will produce clouds and rain downwind 
of the lakes. Multiple shortwave troughs and fronts will move 
through the region through the weekend. The low-level wind will be 
changing, making it hard to pinpoint lake band placement. A 
combination of lake effect showers and synoptically forced showers 
are possible through weekend. 

A second cold front may move across the region Sunday-Monday 
bringing even colder temperatures to the region. Showers will 
continue with the potential for some wet snowflakes across the 
higher terrain. 

Cool temperatures next weekend with highs in the low to mid 50s. Low 
temperatures will average the mid to upper 30s at the higher terrain 
to the low to mid 40s across the Lake Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mainly VFR flight conditions will prevail tonight as surface high 
pressure moves into our region. Some CIGS may briefly go below 3k 
feet through the early overnight across the higher terrain east of 
Lake Ontario. Otherwise, light winds and clearing skies will bring 
the possibility for some river valley fog (IFR) across the Southern 
Tier late tonight, including nearing the KJHW terminal.

Aside from some lingering valley fog Tuesday morning, high pressure 
centered over the Ohio valley will provide VFR flight conditions 
right through Tuesday evening. Of note, west winds will pick up from 
midday on, with gusts of 20-30 knots. 

Outlook... 

Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...Restrictions likely with periods of showers. 
Friday and Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
West to northwest winds will maintain small craft conditions on 
southern Lake Ontario through tonight.

Surface high pressure will slide from the Ohio Valley to near the 
Carolina coast Tuesday through Wednesday. A fairly tight pressure 
gradient will develop across both Lakes Tuesday on the northern 
periphery of this surface high bringing a moderate westerly flow 
lasting into Wednesday, likely continuing small craft conditions on 
Lake Ontario through mid-week. This has also necessitated the 
issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Lake Erie from Tuesday 
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 PM EDT Wednesday 
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for 
         LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/TMA