273 FXUS64 KLUB 181522 AAA AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1022 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021 .UPDATE... Minor update to add a minimal shower/sprinkle mention across our northwestern and northern zones this afternoon, though kept PoPs around 10%. A decent plume of mid-upper level moisture will stream across West Texas through this afternoon, with several weather models producing light QPF across the northwestern South Plains into the southern Texas Panhandle this afternoon. However, relatively dry low-levels will limit overall rain chances as precipitation will tend to evaporate before reaching the ground. Given this, the odds of measurable precipitation will be on the low side, generally no higher than 10-15%. If/where stronger cores can form aloft, they could locally enhance the surface winds. Aside from the addition of isolated shower mention, no other changes were made to the ongoing forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 617 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ AVIATION... VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy south winds through the afternoon and into the evening. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Mon Oct 18 2021/ SHORT TERM... An upper level ridge axis has shifted to the east of the region early this morning and will be quickly replaced by increasing mid and upper level southwesterly flow downstream from a compact upper level low that will move from northern California at press time to western Utah at 00Z and then lifting northeastward toward southern Wyoming overnight tonight. The main result for the forecast area today will be an increase in mid to high level cloud cover and increasing southerly winds while an increase in thickness values should see a decent warming relative to yesterday, especially west of the escarpment. A subtle short wave trough over northern Sonora is progged to eject quickly eastward today and may produce some high- based showers later today as it interacts with mid level moisture over the western half of the forecast area. However, with dry sub- cloud air in place the expectation of measurable rainfall anywhere in the forecast area is remote at this time. LONG TERM... A progressive and mostly dry upper level jet pattern will persist through the longterm. A fast moving shortwave will result in a dryline developing over the Rolling Plains with breezy westerly surface winds lifting temperatures into the low/mid 80s over the Caprock in the afternoon. A relatively weak surface cold front will push south across our CWA late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The environment out ahead and behind the front will be moisture starved with max temperatures only cooling down on Wednesday to seasonally normal values. The dry pattern will continue through the rest of the week into the weekend with very gradual warming temperatures under quasi-zonal flow into flat ridging by the beginning of next week. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 23/55