871 FXUS63 KMPX 171934 CCA AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 234 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 The only weather of note through the period is the system that will move through the area on Wednesday, bringing widespread light to moderate rainfall and isolated thunder. Until then, we will see a continuation of mild temperatures and abundant sunshine as the surface high slowly moves east and the upper ridge expands across the area. Return flow will start to setup Monday and will persist through Tuesday, eventually allowing for sufficient moisture return for precipitation to develop ahead of the shortwave trough and associated surface low progged to move east across the southern portion of the forecast area on Wednesday. Likely to categorical PoPs are now advertised across the area with this system, although at this point rainfall amounts generally look to be on the order of a quarter to half inch (with locally higher amounts associated with any convective elements, mainly near the I-90 corridor). Things will shift quickly eastward on Thursday, with cooler and drier weather to round out the week. Warm advection will increase over the weekend as we get onto the backside of the surface ridge and see another surface trough take shape over the Plains. Some low PoPs seem warranted from late Saturday into Sunday, particularly across the west. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Oct 17 2021 Surface high pressure will slowly shift east through the period as the western upper ridge pushes toward the center of the country. VFR conditions, with few if any clouds, will continue with light southwesterly winds becoming south over time and increasing in speed slightly on Monday. KMSP...No concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Monday night through Tuesday...VFR. South wind 10 kt or less becoming variable less than 5 kt Tuesday. Tuesday night...VFR. Northeast wind increasing to around 10 kt overnight. Wednesday. MVFR expected with rain likely. Northeast wind increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Wednesday night...MVFR possible early with a chance of rain. Northeast wind 10 to 20 kt becoming northwest. Thursday...VFR. Northwest wind 10 to 15 kt. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for Chippewa-Eau Claire- Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...