639 FXUS63 KABR 150801 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 301 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Scattered sprinkles and potentially a few flurries will remain possible early this morning over north central SD. These are co- located with the passage of the 500mb trough. The 500mb low over Manitoba is extending a trough through the Dakotas and NE and the Co/KS border. As we move through the day today, this trough will shift east across MN. Other than early morning sprinkles/flurries, plenty of clouds are expected to remain over northeastern SD due to the lingering trough and some cold air advection cumulus. There is even a little CAPE. While not in the forecast, I wouldn't be completely shocked if a few showers move into our west central MN counties as depicted off some of the latest CAMs. Breezy conditions will remain today, with the strongest gusts nearing 30-35kts over central South Dakota. The sky should quickly clear this evening. Just how fast winds diminish, and how low temperatures get will will dictate where and when frost or freeze conditions form. At this point, the most likely area will be across the James River Valley, where winds will be lightest. Temperatures across the entire area should bottom out in the low 30s. After tonight, lows should stay above frost/freeze concerns through at least Monday night into Tuesday morning. As noted in the previous discussion, typically, if a cold snap hasn't ended the growing season by October 15th, ABR issues a statement declaring the growing season over, and the end of frost/freeze products until the start of the next growing season. Temperatures will rebound into the low to mid 60s Saturday, under a clear sky as northwesterly flow continues aloft with the 500mb ridge set up across the intermountain west. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Thursday) Issued at 301 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 The extended period starts off with upper level ridging approaching from the west. The ridging will dominate the pattern through the day Monday, while the region will be under the influence of surface high pressure Saturday night and Sunday, then will be between the exiting high and surface high pressure approaching from the west. The low and its associated frontal boundary will track across the CWA Monday night into Tuesday morning, and looks to move through dry. However, a decent upper level shortwave will track across the area behind the surface front, and most of the models are now hinting at the potential for precipitation development sometime in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. For now, will stick with the slight chance to chance POPs that the in-house model blend is suggesting for both Tuesday and Wednesday until a solution becomes more clear. Temperatures look warm enough for the precipitation to be rain, with the exception of Tuesday night across the north central part of South Dakota where some light snow could mix in. High pressure settles back in over the area on Thursday with a return to dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday and Monday under the influence of the upper ridge, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s both days. Cooler air then returns with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday, in the upper 40s to mid 50s Wednesday, and in the 50s Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 30s Saturday night, in the 40s Sunday night and Monday night, and in the 30s Tuesday night and Wednesday night. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Friday. On Friday, expect scattered to broken clouds to develop and dissipate in the early evening. Also, expect west to northwest winds to mix out into the 20 to 35 knot range at all airports, dropping off quickly in the early evening. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KF LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Parkin