951 FXUS65 KTFX 141725 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1125 AM MDT Thu Oct 14 2021 Updated Aviation Discussion .UPDATE... Shortwave disturbances embedded within a broader upper level trough is bringing snow showers to some areas along the continental divide as well as over some of the central and SW MT mtns this morning. The disturbance moves off to the SE through this afternoon but NW flow and some embedded moisture will keep some widely scattered snow showers over the same areas going into early this evening. Even in mountain areas where snow showers will be more persistent snow accumulation will be less than an inch. Mid level clouds cover much of the area this morning, except in a narrow corridor east of the Rocky Mtn Front. Expect considerable cloudiness to persist into this afternoon for most areas with some drying/clearing working east across north-central MT this afternoon and evening before more widespread clearing occurs tonight. Except for some adjustments to pops/sky for today to incorporate newer blended model guidance and observed trends this morning, no significant changes from previous forecast. Hoenisch && .SYNOPSIS... Areas of light precipitation will affect the western mountains and immediate adjacent plains today through this evening. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions and continued cool temperatures are expected today and Friday. High pressure aloft builds over Montana this weekend for dry and warmer temperatures with gusty west winds. Another weak weather system is expected on Monday for a return to more seasonable temperatures and a slight chance for precipitation. && .AVIATION... 1125 AM MDT Thu Oct 14 2021 (14/18Z TAF period) Moist NW flow aloft will keep considerable mid level cloud-cover streaming across the region through this afternoon with clouds decreasing for most areas from NW to SE Tonight. VFR conditions prevail with isolated/scattered snow showers mainly impacting areas near the mountains and bringing occasional terrain obscuration in these areas. Breezy to windy conditions persist through Friday with winds generally from the west to northwest today, becoming more southwesterly tonight through Friday. Hoenisch Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM MDT Thu Oct 14 2021/ A broad upper level trough will remain over the Rocky Mountains and Great Plains today through Friday. There continues to be a slight chance to low chance for precipitation as several weak disturbances move through the broad trough over the next 24 to 36 hours. However, any liquid accumulation amounts resulting from this activity will be severely limited and mostly confined to the western mountains. The biggest concern for the the end of the work week will be moderately strong and gusty winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and over the immediate adjacent plains. NBM probability forecasts have significantly backed away from winds reaching high wind criteria for Friday through Sunday except for over the highest elevations along the crest of the Continental Divide As such, gusty winds will be a nuisance, but they are unlikely to be damaging. The most pressing concern for Friday through the weekend will be minimum relative humidity values dropping to near or below 20 percent (especially on Sunday) and combining with the gusty winds for elevated Fire Weather concerns. Although elevated, these levels are currently not expected to reach critical criteria that would require issuance of a Red Flag Warning, but caution is still recommended. Temperatures will also rebound well above seasonal averages for Saturday and Sunday as high pressure aloft moves over the region. The warmer temperatures will be short-lived as short wave energy and an associated Pacific cold front progress through the region for a low chance of precipitation Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will cool significantly behind this system with highs on Monday and Tuesday likely being 10 to 20 degrees cooler than those of Sunday. Beyond Monday, diagnostic models and ensembles have a rough time settling on a coherent forecast so I have once again used the NBM which keeps conditions dry and breezy with temperatures once again rebounding to near or above seasonal averages. mpj && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 49 29 57 40 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 48 29 54 38 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 48 32 58 35 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 42 22 51 26 / 20 10 0 0 WYS 33 15 36 20 / 30 10 0 0 DLN 38 22 46 26 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 51 26 59 35 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 44 26 54 35 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls