926 FXUS64 KBRO 140044 AAA AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 744 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Surface obs from around the RGV this evening shows some patchy MVFR ceilings around the region with relatively gusty SE surface winds persisting. The surface flow will decrease overnight as the LLJ aloft decouples. Shallow atms moisture values overnight into tomorrow may propduce some brief MVFR ceilings for the RGV airports, but expect VFR conditions to prevail. The brisk surface winds will limit any fog formation overnight into Thurs morning. Some isold is possible across the RGV airports late in the day tomorrow as the daytime heating kicks in. However, do not expect enough activity to justify including in the later TAf periods. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): Remnants of Pamela will move through the northwestern portion of the CWA this evening giving that area the best chance for rain. As for tomorrow morning and into the afternoon hours, NBM showed a slight chance of rain for the CWA thanks to the remnants of Pamela and a 500mb shortwave following the Tropical Storm. The dynamics of the atmosphere will be favorable to sustain isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas as a tropical air mass takes over for Thursday. Looking at GFS/NAM soundings for BRO/HRL/MFE at 6-18z tomorrow, there are CAPE values near 2000 J/kg as well as PWATs in the 2 inches range. Also looking at 500-700mb vorticity values, there will still be favorable areas of vorticity over our area that stick around after Pamela leaves. There is moderate confidence we will see widespread precipitation tomorrow as the atmosphere will have plenty of potential to sustain those showers if they can overcome the CAP. It will still be muggy and warm for tomorrow as above average temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints will sit in the upper 70s. Winds won't be as strong tomorrow but we will still experience southerly flow with light to moderate winds. LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Hot and humid conditions will only hang on through the very start of the long term period before a very welcome reprieve comes in the form of a cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. PoPs will increase just ahead and along the front as it passes through on Friday and Friday night, but then should quickly clear out behind the front leaving Saturday mostly dry and cool...with temperatures only topping out near 80 degrees. Surface and mid level ridging will follow the frontal passage and will dominate through the weekend and the new presiding airmass will bring pleasantly cool and dry conditions to Deep South Texas. While dew points will drop dramatically behind the front, the drier air filtering in is expected to be rather shallow. As surface high pressure progresses to our east, an onshore flow will return by Monday, helping to increase surface moisture. Models are still showing a weak shortwave passing overhead Deep South Texas Sunday night into Monday, but moisture availability will be confined to a shallow layer near the surface, so have continued to keep any mentionable PoPs out of the forecast through early next week. After that little shortwave moves out, the flow aloft will be quasi-zonal and southeasterly surface winds will continue to increase surface moisture and warm temperatures back up to around seasonal normal (upper 80s to near 90s for the highs and upper 60s to lower 70s for the lows) through mid week. MARINE: Tonight through Thursday Night...Strong to moderate southeasterly winds and elevated seas at 5 to 6 feet will continue tonight. Small Craft Advisory will be in effect until 9pm. As winds start to die down overnight, seas will still be slightly elevated until tomorrow. May need to issue Small Craft Exercise Caution for the morning hours. Friday through Tuesday...Marine conditions will start off favorable on Friday with light winds and low seas, but will quickly deteriorate behind the next cold front which is expected to move through the lower Texas coastal waters late Friday into Saturday morning, with Small Craft Advisories expected Friday night into Sunday for portions of the lower Texas coastal waters. Then conditions should improve early next week as winds and seas gradually subside. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 91 76 90 / 10 20 10 20 BROWNSVILLE 80 92 78 93 / 10 20 10 20 HARLINGEN 78 93 76 94 / 10 20 10 20 MCALLEN 79 97 77 96 / 20 20 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 75 100 / 20 10 10 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 86 81 86 / 10 20 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-257- 351. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ150-155-170- 175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv Short Term/Aviation...60-Speece Long Term/Upper Air...67-Mejia