730 FXUS63 KDDC 122332 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 632 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 ...Significant Severe Weather Tonight, Including Tornadoes... Early this afternoon, a major mid-latitude cyclone was maturing out across western Colorado. A surface low continued to rapidly deepen just lee of the Colorado Rockies, and the surface winds were responding nicely with widespread south-southeast winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with higher gusts. Rapid northward transport of 60-65F surface dewpoints were underway across the eastern Texas Panhandle into west central Oklahoma. Everything that was discussed in yesterday afternoon's Short Term discussion remains valid as of this forecast update. A significant severe weather event is about to unfold later on this evening. The only thing that has really changed, and has become increasingly concerning, is that the low level moisture (62-65F dewpoints) will be making a run on southwest Kansas a little bit quicker than previously forecast...and a bit farther west...such that areas along and event a bit west of Highway 83 now have an increased risk of significant severe weather, including tornadoes. The 02-05Z (9 PM to Midnight CDT) time frame is of particular concern, as the latest HRRR and RAP low level thermodynamic and shear parameters are well into the tornado category...even significant tornado category...as a large region will have 0-1km AGL storm-relative helicity in the 300- 400 m2/s2 during the 02-05Z time frame. This is also the best time frame for discrete supercell mode. If the storm mode remains primarily supercellular in the critical 02- 05Z time frame, we have to face the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes covering potentially 10s of miles. This is extremely unusual for far western Kansas to see tornadic storms racing northeast at 50+ mph, but this is exactly what we may be dealing with tonight. This puts much more land at risk, obviously, with such fast storm motions. This will also present a challenge for warning forecasters tonight given such fast, forward storm (tornado) motion. Eventually, the primary severe weather mode will become more linear in nature as the risk shifts east by/shortly after midnight. All in all, a dangerous night of severe storms is still on track for much of the southwest Kansas region. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 346 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 The next storm system slated to impact the region will move across late Thursday into early Friday, however the surface front is expected to remain just south of the DDC forecast area, so the severe weather potential will remain south and east of southwest Kansas. That said, we will need to watch our far southeast CWA (mainly Barber County) as a surface wave along the front will be pretty close to south central Kansas. We will keep some POPs in Barber county area as a result. Light cold sector precipitation is still expected across the remainder of our forecast area along the mid level frontal zone late Thursday Night, but widespread moderate or heavy rainfall is not expected. Fairly cool air behind the front will filter in on Friday, and afternoon temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s. It still looks like there is the potential for a frost/freeze across mainly far west central Kansas. Frost/freeze headlines may be required if these model trends continue out west. A high pressure ridge in the mid/upper troposphere will move across western Kansas over the weekend with much quieter weather forecast. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021 Low level stratus in central and south central Kansas will continue to develop slowly northwestward into portions of southwest and west central Kansas within a prevailing southeasterly upslope flow, resulting in MVFR cigs in vicinity of KDDC, KHYS, and potentially KGCK through mid/late evening. IFR cigs cannot be ruled out at KDDC. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a strong frontal boundary edging into extreme southwest Kansas generally after 01Z, then spread eastward across the remainder of southwest Kansas into central/south central Kansas through 07Z, affecting all TAF sites. The main impacts will be damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Prevailing southeasterly winds 15 to 30kt will continue ahead of the aformentioned approaching frontal boundary, then turn west-southwesterly around 10-20kt behind the boundary as it pushes eastward overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 44 67 42 67 / 80 0 0 10 GCK 40 65 38 63 / 80 0 0 0 EHA 42 70 39 66 / 30 0 0 0 LBL 41 69 38 68 / 50 0 0 0 HYS 46 65 40 62 / 90 0 0 10 P28 53 70 48 73 / 90 10 0 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Umscheid LONG TERM...Umscheid AVIATION...JJohnson