971 FXUS64 KAMA 111123 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 623 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions are expected with mainly scattered to broken high level cloudiness possible at all three TAF sites after 02Z to 04Z Tuesday. West to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots will become south and southeast and will increase to around 15 to 25 knots with gusts to near 30 knots after 18Z to 21Z today. South to southeast winds 10 to 20 knots with occasional gusts near 20 to 25 knots possible after 02Z to 04Z Tuesday. Low level wind shear is forecast at all three TAF sites after 03Z to 04Z Tuesday through 12Z Tuesday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021/ SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Shortwave ridging will briefly build in across the Panhandles today before moving off to the east tonight and Tuesday. Closed upper low will track east across northern Arizona and the Four Corners region tonight through Tuesday morning. The closed upper low then lifts north and east across the central U.S. Rockies Tuesday afternoon and then into the Panhandle of Nebraska Tuesday night. As the upper dynamics from the closed upper low moves close to the Panhandles by 00Z Wednesday, convection, some severe with all hazards in play, is expected to develop along and east of the Caprock between 00Z and 06Z Wednesday before moving east into Oklahoma by 09Z Wednesday. Drier conditions expected after 06Z to 09Z Wednesday. Cool surface high elongated northwest to southeast across northern New Mexico and across the Texas South Plains region will move away from the Panhandles by this afternoon as a lee surface trough develops across eastern Colorado and eastern New Mexico by 21Z today. Surface low develops over southern/southeastern Colorado by this evening and deepens overnight tonight into Tuesday across eastern Colorado. The surface trough sharpens up in a dryline Tuesday and mixes east across the western and central Panhandles by Tuesday afternoon and evening. Much warmer and breezy to windy conditions Tuesday with above normal temperatures. The dryline mixes as far east as the Caprock or just off the Caprock in the eastern Panhandles Tuesday evening. This will set the stage for convective development between 00Z and 03Z Wednesday along and east of the dryline. A Pacific cold front will track east across the forecast area Tuesday night which will advance the dryline and convection eastward out of the Panhandles and into Oklahoma after 06Z Wednesday. Slightly cooler but drier conditions are expected behind the frontal passage late Tuesday night. Schneider FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible Tuesday mainly across the western Oklahoma Panhandle. Max RFTIs are forecast to be 2 to 4 across the western Oklahoma Panhandle Tuesday, however minimum afternoon relative humidity values are only forecast to be as low as 25 to 30 percent with 20 foot southwesterly winds as high as 25 to 30 mph with gusts near 40 mph. The RFTIs on Tuesday will be primarily wind-driven and the elevated fire weather potential will be conditional. Schneider LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday. A return to dry weather along with near to a little below normal temperatures is expected Wednesday and Thursday. A minor upper level shortwave trof may bring a slight chc to chc for some rain showers to parts of the area Thursday night and Friday morning, and NBM pops for those period were accepted at this time. Below normal temperatures are expected to continue on Friday and Saturday with some moderation Sunday. NBM temperatures Wednesday through Sunday were plausible and incorporated into the grids. 02 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 11/2