466 
FXUS64 KTSA 110149
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
849 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

...UPDATE...

...Severe weather threat continues this evening with localized
   flash flooding...

.DISCUSSION...
Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms with embedded bow
structures will move into northeast Oklahoma over the next few 
hours. The low level wind fields have started to rapidly increase 
and the threat for damaging winds, including a few tornadoes will 
continue. 0-1 km shear is already 35 kts and is expected to 
increase into the 40 to locally 50 kt range ahead of line. 

Instability across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will
also continue to slowly increase in conjunction with the low level
jet and therefore the damaging wind/tornado threat will likely 
persist as the main convective line sweeps through the remainder 
of the area.

In addition, slow moving storms with very heavy rainfall will also
continue with a localized flash flood threat across northeast Oklahoma.
A secondary cluster of strong to marginally severe storms will likely
redevelop across portions of northeast Oklahoma after midnight in
association with upper vort max. This could further aggravate 
flooding concerns where the heavier rainfall occurs this evening. 

Overall, current forecast on track with some minor changes to 
thunderstorm timing expected. 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Monday for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12