280 FXUS62 KFFC 101200 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...12Z Aviation Area Forecast Discussion... .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 404 AM EDT Sun Oct 10 2021/ SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/... Strong non-tropical low continues to churn just off the coast of NC this morning. Circulation around the low battering up against the Appalachians and filtering down is bringing easterly winds across most of the CWA as well as a bit of increased moisture in the lower levels. Seeing some low-level clouds that have formed in SC moving towards the area as a result. Visibilities are also starting to fluxuate a bit under areas of mostly clear skies, light winds, and dewpoint depressions that are approaching or at 0 in many locations. May consider an SPS for patchy dense fog a little later if this trend continues and conditions deteriorate a bit more. This low off the coast remains in place in the short term/convective guidance through the short term period as part of a larger cut off low within the upper levels that will slowly drift south. NHC is highlighting some potential for it to gain enough barotropic/warm- core elements to perhaps become subtropical, but this would likely have little impact on our weather. Expecting no real precip chances through the short term. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s today and tomorrow, which is a bit above average for this time of year. Lusk LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/... The forecast remains fairly quiet for the long term portion of the forecast. There are two systems that are expected to impact the CWA, the first during the early part of the week and the second for next weekend. The best chances for precip will be the second system. Narrow ridge aloft stays in place through the early part of next week. A mid level low pressure system will move out of the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley late Monday into early Tuesday, but should stay well to the north and west as the ridge axis holds. The models are not progging much moisture associated with this system (aloft or at the surface) to make it eastward into the CWA, but with some stronger forcing aloft, the energy should squeeze out any moisture in the atmos. The chance for measurable rain is very small and too low to mention at this time, but will add a chance for sprinkles to the far NW zones as the upper low passes. The end of the week remains dry as high pressure aloft and at the surface will continue. However, both ridges will get shoved offshore by late Friday early Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is currently on schedule for Saturday, with high pressure building in from the west on Sunday. The stronger mid level forcing with the Saturday system looks to be well north of the CWA at this time, but there will be enough moisture for scattered shra, and potentially isold tsra with the FROPA. NListemaa AVIATION... 06Z Update... Primary concern will be MVFR conditions that could duck into IFR in the morning across metro TAF sites, AHN, and MCN. Some uncertainty around whether or not cloud deck will materialize with moisture brought in by easterly winds that would bring the IFR this morning. Have included a TEMPO for the possibility and will continue to evaluate through the night. This should end by 14Z with VFR through the period. Expecting winds to remain light and on the east side through TAF period. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium confidence on morning cigs, high all else. Lusk && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Morning lower cigs have mostly avoided the metro TAF sites and look to impact mainly MCN this morning where TEMPO is in place. Conditions should stay VFR through TAF period at most all sites otherwise. Winds will be from the east side, 3-8 kts. Some afternoon cu could develop, but should stay FEW to SCT before clearing tonight. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence all elements. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 79 60 79 61 / 0 0 5 0 Atlanta 80 62 80 63 / 0 0 5 0 Blairsville 78 57 76 58 / 0 0 5 0 Cartersville 81 62 81 63 / 0 0 5 0 Columbus 83 62 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 78 61 77 62 / 0 0 5 0 Macon 82 60 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 84 62 84 64 / 0 0 5 5 Peachtree City 80 60 81 62 / 0 0 5 0 Vidalia 79 63 82 65 / 0 0 5 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...Lusk