631 FXUS63 KILX 092322 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 622 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 Near record-breaking warmth will be observed across central and southeast Illinois on Sunday as afternoon high temperatures soar into the middle to upper 80s. After that, a vigorous storm system will track out of the southern Plains...bringing strong to potentially severe thunderstorms to the area on Monday. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 A warm front currently draped across central Illinois will lift northward into the southern Great Lakes tonight. Ample mid/high cloud cover will accompany the front, but will begin to clear from south to north across the area late. Given cloud cover and a southerly wind of 10 to 15mph, overnight lows will only drop into the middle to upper 60s. As a cold front slowly approaches the Mississippi River from the northwest, several CAMs suggest scattered showers northwest of the Illinois River Sunday morning. Have carried low chance PoPs along/northwest of a Macomb to Minonk line accordingly. The front will eventually stall or even retrograde westward during the day Sunday, so any morning showers will come to an end. The remainder of the area will see partly to mostly sunny skies along with gusty southwesterly winds. Thanks to ample sunshine and strong WAA, high temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 80s...with a few spots south of I-70 potentially reaching the 90 degree mark. && .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 As has been advertised for the past several days, a significant storm system is slated to track into the Midwest on Monday. 12z Oct 9 models are slightly faster with the low track...now taking it through the Illinois River Valley by Monday afternoon. Given the faster track, it appears the best focus for potential severe weather will be along/east of the I-55 corridor during the afternoon into the early evening. While instability is somewhat lacking, a powerful low-level jet just off the surface will enhance directional/speed shear sufficiently to support rotating updrafts with the storms. 0-3km VGP peaks at 0.3 to 0.4, suggesting the potential for embedded supercells within one or more lines of convection expected to form across the area. Based on these parameters, think the primary severe weather threat will be damaging wind gusts...although an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Once the low lifts into the Great Lakes, thunderstorms will rapidly come to an end Monday evening...followed by a return to warm/dry weather for Tuesday. After that, another powerful storm system developing over the central/northern Plains will push an occluded front into Illinois late Wednesday into Thursday. While instability will be sufficient to support thunder mention, the strongest forcing/upper dynamics will remain well W/NW of central Illinois...therefore, the severe risk looks low. Several waves may track along the front late next week...keeping rain chances alive into Friday. Once the boundary finally gets pushed eastward out of the region, temperatures will drop back to near normal for this of year in the upper 60s by next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 VFR conditions expected through the period. Main forecast concern will be with the winds. Have continued the LLWS mention overnight as low level jet ramps up, though surface winds will still be around 10 knots or so. South winds expected to gust 20-25 knots by mid morning, and continue through Sunday afternoon. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Geelhart