223 FXUS62 KTAE 092311 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 711 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Monday] VFR conditions expected through the period at all terminals. The exception will be at VLD where fog could briefly bring MVFR conditions around sunrise. && .PREV DISCUSSION [358 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Sunday]... A pleasant fall day is expected tomorrow as a ridge slides east and high pressure dominates with sub-70 degree dewpoints locked in place. With PoPs near 0%, a mostly clear day is expected with fair weather Cu making an appearance during the afternoon. Patchy fog may be possible along our easternmost GA counties for a brief moment around sunrise tomorrow morning. Expect daytime highs in the mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 60s. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Night Through Monday Night]... Warm and dry weather is forecast for the short term as upper level ridging moves into the region. High temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 80s for the region, while lows fall into the mid to upper 60s for most locations. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]... 500mb cluster analysis and ensemble forecasts depict high pressure dominating this period. This will lead to above normal temperatures and keep chances of precip largely at bay. Easterly winds may usher in some moisture to the region by midweek, which could interact with local land and seabreezes. It's not entirely possible to rule out a few showers. Come the weekend, guidance hints at the ridge either flattening or slightly giving way to a trough. Current thinking is that this solution is favored and we may really only see a reprieve in temperatures. Kept the light NBM PoPs in the forecast for Saturday for the time being as it fits with the ensemble guidance. .MARINE... High pressure slowly builds to our west, which continues to nudge an area of low pressure off of the coastal Carolinas. Winds have already started to to take on a north-northeast component and will likely turn easterly by late tomorrow. High pressure then holds over the region, which will keep winds from the east. Seas will be light as well and generally in the 1 to 2 foot range. .FIRE WEATHER... Drier conditions with little to no rain is in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend. Due to low ERCs from recent rainfall, and light northerly winds, fire weather concerns are expected to remain low. .HYDROLOGY... High pressure will take hold of the forecast, which means little to no new rain is expected over the next 7 days. Rivers are still running high, with a Flood Warning still in effect for Apalachicola at Blountstown. The latest river forecast shows the Apalachicola River should fall below flood stage late tomorrow in early Monday. However, high flow will continue in most of our river systems during the week ahead as downstream routing flushes out leftover rainwater from this past week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 66 86 66 86 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 67 86 68 84 69 / 0 0 0 10 0 Dothan 64 86 63 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 65 85 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 65 84 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 67 86 66 87 68 / 0 10 0 10 0 Apalachicola 68 84 70 82 70 / 0 0 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Oliver SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM...KR AVIATION...Young MARINE...KR FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...KR