119 FXUS63 KJKL 091936 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 336 PM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 336 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2021 The afternoon surface analysis reveals a nearby high pressure and warm front sprawled from the Central Plains into western Kentucky. High pressure will remain in control of the weather through the short term period, with warm front pushing northeast just skirting the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Meanwhile upper level ridging works into the Ohio Valley from Northern Mexico, as a trough flattens and ridging becomes squeezed by amplified upper low in the Plains and possible tropical system off the Carolina coast lines. This high pressure and ridging will keep our weather quiet through the short term period under south to southeast flow at the surface. Given the southeast flow opted to lower afternoon dewpoints from the NBM output given the more downslope flow potential. Also not sold on the overnight cloud coverage the NBM keeps adding, but some high clouds are possible as they ride across the ridging. Overall more summer like pattern is expected with warm above normal temperatures (running around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for max and min temps) and valley fog each morning. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 336 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2021 An amplified pattern is in place with a series of upper level waves across the CONUS. Ridging will also be in place at the beginning of the period, extending through the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic from the Gulf. To our northwest, a shortwave is positioned across the Upper Great Lakes, with a second just to the southwest across the Central Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, low pressure will be planted across Missouri with a cold front extended down and through the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will progress east, weakening and eventually washing out across Western Kentucky. This is where showers will be most favorable under a high shear/ low CAPE environment and PWATs around 1.25". The far western fringes of the CWA will see very brief height falls into early Tuesday morning, resulting in isolated PoPs during the day. Brief ridging will then fill in across the Ohio River Valley through mid week, making a return to drier weather across Eastern Kentucky. At the same time, a deep negatively tilted trough will set up across the Central Rockies with an associated surface low in the Southwestern South Dakota/ Northwestern Nebraska/ Eastern Wyoming corridor. A cold front will run down through the Southern Plains, progressing east with the northeastward propagation of the parent low. Southerly flow will be in place across Eastern Kentucky, with moisture advecting into the area ahead of the approaching front. PWAT's will approach 1.25" and increase to near 1.75" by Friday night along and ahead of the cold front. There still remains uncertainty in timing, with the GFS the quickest solution, the Canadian the slowest, and the Euro in between. Because of this, have leaned on the blend during this period. Above average temperatures will continue through the extended, with a relatively dry stint expected through a majority of the work week. Slight chance showers will be possible in some locations on Tuesday, before brief ridging returns Wednesday and most of Thursday. An approaching cold front will then bring increasing PoPs late work week and into Saturday. Look for cooler temps, post-front, thereafter. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT OCT 9 2021 This afternoon we are seeing mostly VFR skies with some cumulus bases touching high end MVFR from time to time. The sites will remain VFR through the afternoon and evening before fog and/or low stratus becomes an issue tonight, with MVFR or lower Vis possible at most sites. This fog will lift around 13 to 14Z at the TAF sites, but this could take a little longer in the deeper valleys. Then expect a return to VFR skies for the remainder of the period. An area of nearby surface high pressure will keep the winds light around 5 knots or less through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...DJ