765 FXUS61 KBUF 090817 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 417 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening upper low slowly approaching our region will bring some showers mainly to far western New York today and tonight. Drier weather will return Sunday and continue into next week. Temperatures will maintain well above normal levels through the Columbus Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... An upper level shortwave trough will continue to move northeast across the Great Lakes region through tonight. Best chances for showers and perhaps a stray thunderstorm look to be across far western New York through today, while areas east of the Genesee Valley likely staying dry, with any remaining showers possibly grazing the Saint Lawrence Valley early tonight. We will warm into the 60s across inland areas today, while the lake plains get into the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Near Record Temperatures During This Period... A weak wave aloft and associated surface warm front will pass through the area on Sunday. The better forcing will remain northwest of the area, however there will be the chance for a shower toward the Saint Lawrence Valley during the first half of the day. At the same time, southeasterly onshore flow on the north side of low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard off the Delmarva will throw moisture back to the northwest across eastern PA and southcentral NY. This will bring the chance for a light shower or two possibly as far west as Allegany, Livingston and Ontario Counties. Otherwise, an amplifying ridge over the region during this period will result in fair weather for the first part of the new work week, with the next chance for a few showers not coming into the picture until Tuesday afternoon across western NY. Temperatures will average WELL above normal. In fact, high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will approach record levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Well above average temperatures continue through this period, however record highs no longer appear to be in jeopardy. Weakening upper level trough and associated weak surface cold front progged to slowly cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing the next chance for some showers to western and northcentral NY. General low amplitude ridging will then build back across the area for the second half of the work week. This will allow the mild conditions to continue along with a good amount of dry time. That said, there will be a couple of weak shortwaves riding through the area in the mean upper flow. Lack of forcing and deeper moisture should keep any shower activity toward the end of the work week on the lighter side and scattered in nature. Otherwise, daytime highs will generally range from the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MVFR cigs developing across the western Southern Tier early this morning, while VFR conditions prevail elsewhere. The MVFR cigs will likely remain at KJHW into this afternoon, before improving to VFR. South to southeast low level flow will try to nudge the lower clouds northward today and cigs could lower to near MVFR levels at KROC, KIAG, and KBUF. There will be some showers across far western New York today, but no significant visibility restrictions are expected. VFR conditions should continue tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Southeast winds will pickup today and could near 20 knots at times, but this flow will keep the higher waves in international waters. Winds and waves will start to relax with conditions below small craft thresholds through the rest of the weekend and into the first half of next week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...TMA MARINE...TMA