797 FXUS64 KBMX 090609 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 109 AM CDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .UPDATE... For 06Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... /Updated at 0625 PM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021/ Very thankful for a very quiet evening here at the weather office. With surface high pressure in place, skies are clear with light/calm winds. For the most part, the previous forecast remains on track. The only change was to add some patchy fog in the grids, mainly along area rivers/lakes, overnight. We'll continue the much welcomed dry spell on Saturday with plenty of sunshine and highs in the 80s. 19 Previous short-term discussion: /Updated at 1238 PM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021/ Today through Saturday. Features of Interest. Longwave troughing extended from Minnesota southeast over the Ohio and Tennessee Valley Regions to over the Florida Big Bend Area. Mid level ridging continued to build over Northern Mexico and Southwest Texas. Surface high pressure extended from the Mid Atlantic Region southwest down the Appalachians into the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Today. Longwave troughing will remain to the east of the state while mid-level ridging will continue to build to our west. Our area will experience northwesterly flow aloft with drier air continuing to mix down. Remnant low-level moisture will be highest across the eastern half of the forecast area. Expect fair skies west to partly cloudy skies east. There is a very low potential for a brief shower this afternoon across the far east, otherwise, dry conditions will prevail. Winds will be from the north and northwest 5-10 mph. Highs today will range from around 80 in the Eastern Highlands to readings in the mid 80s south and west. Tonight. Longwave troughing aloft will move further to the northeast, becoming positioned from Michigan southeast to over the Carolinas. Mid-level ridging to our west will remain centered over the Rio Grande Valley. Surface high pressure will remain extended from the Northeastern states southwest into Louisiana. Mostly clear skies are forecast overnight with a few more clouds across the far east. There will be limited potential for some brief patchy fog developing before sunrise Saturday, but this would mainly be over and near rivers and bodies of water. Winds will become calm overnight with lows around 60 northeast and elsewhere in the lower 60s. Saturday. Troughing aloft will persist over the Eastern Ohio River Valley into the Southern Mid Atlantic Region while mid-level ridging broadens from Texas eastward into much of Arkansas and Louisiana. Surface high pressure will be centered near Mobile by early evening. Look for mostly sunny skies Saturday with winds becoming northeast 5-10 mph. Highs will range from the lower 80s in the Eastern Highlands to the upper 80s southwest. 05 .LONG TERM... /Updated at 0211 PM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021/ Sunday through Thursday. No significant changes made to the extended forecast. Several short wave trofs will track eastward out of the Plains states over the weekend and early next week. However, an upper ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico will cause the southern end of the trof to wash out as it approaches northwest Alabama, and limit rain chances. The upper ridge will also keep temperatures above normal. 58/rose Previous long-term discussion: /Updated at 0310 AM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021/ Sunday through Thursday. Dry and warm weather on Sunday will be provided by a deep-layer ridge axis over the region. As a strong upper-level trough moves from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Monday, the approaching cold front should have little moisture to work with. A couple of showers cannot be ruled out in the northwestern counties Monday afternoon into Tuesday as the front fizzles out. With the ridge building back in across the region in a big way for Wednesday and Thursday, dry and warm conditions will continue. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Discussion. Localized valley fog is possible overnight, with MVFR to IFR vis at some forecast terminals. TCL will be susceptible to ground fog and expect vis to bounce around quite a bit before settling at LIFR conditions around sunrise. Any reduced vis will improve by 13-14Z, with VFR conditions and light winds expected for the remainder of the forecast period. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper ridge will build over Alabama this weekend and early next week. A surface ridge near the MS river will produce light north flow tonight and Saturday across Central Alabama. Min RH values on Saturday will be between 50 and 60 percent. River/Valley fog likely again tonight, especially east of I-65. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 83 61 85 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 Anniston 83 63 85 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 84 64 85 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 87 65 87 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 Calera 84 64 85 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 10 Auburn 82 63 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 85 64 87 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 Troy 84 64 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$