004 FXUS61 KRNK 090551 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 151 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will be near the southeast coast through Saturday evening. High pressure and drier weather return for Sunday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Friday... Opportunity for rain continues through Saturday, rain amounts generally less than a half inch. Radar indicates patchy rain, drizzle, and fog for most of the forecast area. Exception was convergent zone over far western VA where unstable air over the TN valley was butting up against the cooler stable air along and east of the Appalachian Divide. Within this convergent boundary, slow moving showers with embedded thunderstorms were ongoing. Through the overnight, persistence seems to be the better forecast. Stable air east of the Appalachian divide will promote abundant cloud cover along with areas of drizzle and fog and the potential for a few hundredths to about a tenth of an inch of light rain. The steadier, heavier shower threat should remain coincident with the more unstable air along and just west of the divide. This suggest areas from the Grayson Highlands north through Smyth/Tazewell and from Bluefield up through the mountains NW of LWB may partake in a bit more wetting...averaging a half inch or so of rain there. Some of the HiRes models suggest localized one to 2 inch amounts from Abingdon to Richlands... so not out of the question to see some poor drainage flooding issues there. As the 5h trough advances east into the piedmont Saturday afternoon, look for shower threat to taper off from southwest to northeast. Could still see a few storms in the afternoon thanks to better lapse rates under the trough. Lows tonight stay elevated with cloudy skies and moist conditions, ranging from the mid 50s to around 60 west, to lower 60s east. Saturday should be slightly warmer as trough moves across, but with low off the NC coast, northeast flow may allow for wedge to hang tough keeping highs in the 60s in most of VA/NW NC, though am allowing for a few 70s if sunshine peeks through. Looks warmer as you head toward the Holston/Clinch Valleys with lower to mid 70s likely in places like Chilhowie and Richlands. Forecast confidence is high on temps, clouds and wind, and average on coverage of showers and low on threat of storms/heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 150 PM EDT Friday... Drying out... Showers will exit the area Saturday evening, getting pulled to a low pressure system off the VA/NC coast. Working in behind this low will be a strong surface high, centered off the New England coast, wedging south into the Carolinas. The parent high will gradually move east Sunday, but will leave a bubble high over the area. In the meantime, an upper level ridge over the western Gulf will stretch northeastward into the Mid Atlantic region. The combination of ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the area mostly dry through the period. High temperatures Saturday will run a few degrees cooler than normal, with a range between the upper 60s to mid 70s. The upper level ridge will help warm temperatures to normal levels on Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Friday... Fairly dry this period... The combination of mixing from an approaching trough and solar heating will disintegrate the bubble high over the area Tuesday. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge in the western Gulf will track eastward. Southwest flow and increasing heights aloft will help temperatures warm above normal for the rest of the workweek. Rain chances Tuesday will be low with isolated showers confined to the mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 145 AM EDT Saturday... Light to moderate rain was scattered across southwest Virginia, northwest North Carolina and southeast West Virginia early this morning with widespread MVFR fog across the area. Ceilings briefly improve by a few hundred feet when heavier rain is falling then lower back to IFR to LIFR levels as the rain ends. Little change in this weather pattern is expected today. Local TAFs sites will slowly improve to MVFR ceilings between 18Z/2PM and 00Z/8PM. Any gain in the ceilings will be lost after sunset as low clouds fill back in. Average confidence for ceilings, visibilities and wind. Extended Aviation Discussion... A continued potential for widespread IFR to LIFR fog and stratus is likely into Sunday morning. Extended models starting to show that the wedge will remain in the area through Monday which will hold in MVFR/IFR clouds. Drier air is expected to come into our region next week with improving conditions to VFR Tuesday or Wednesday except for the late night fog at LWB and BCB. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS AVIATION...AMS/PM