361 FXUS62 KFFC 090535 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 135 AM EDT Sat Oct 9 2021 .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1030 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021/ Update... Most showers have dissipated...but a few are still possible overnight mainly eastern GA. Otherwise a drying trend will continue. No big changes to the forecast. 41 SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... The closed low that had been positioned across the Lower Mississippi Valley region -- our nemesis this week -- has re- opened as it has lifted northward towards the Great Lakes region, and being absorbed by a broad upper trough encompassing much of the eastern CONUS. The axis of this trough is currently positioned across east Georgia. Dry air at the upper levels is building into the area on the back side of the trough, reducing the precipitable water values to the 1-1.25" range. Cloud ceilings have furthermore lifted and scattered out across much of the forecast area where this dry air has set up. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across portions of east Georgia this afternoon and into the overnight hours. Due to recent heavy rains, there are several rivers in the eastern portion of the forecast area that are still in flood stage. Considering the rainfall observed across east Georgia earlier today, combined with clearing skies and light winds, it is possible to see patchy fog and low cloud ceilings develop over eastern Georgia early Saturday morning. Upper level ridging will set up across the area on Saturday, along with a surface high just east of the Appalachians, which could allow for a weak wedge to develop in portions of far northeast Georgia. The influence of the ridge will keep the sensible weather benign, aside from perhaps some isolated thunderstorms in far east Georgia Saturday. In spite of the drier upper level flow, ample low level moisture will still persist, leading to morning lows about 8-12 degrees above climatological normals, in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. King LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... As we move into Sunday morning and finish off the weekend, the upper- level ridge axis has more fully built into our area, resulting in near complete drying of the column as the continental airmass settles in (finally!). PoPs drop off in earnest in response to the slightly more seasonable PWATs (~1-1.2") and lack of forcing. We stay sandwiched between a digging low over the western US and an avocad-low just off the eastern coast of Florida (that dropped out of the trough that brought our gratuitous rainfall over the past week) for several days. The ridging begins to elongate and weaken as we move into midweek, but the CWA should remain fairly clear and dry thanks to nearly vertical stacking of the surface and upper-level highs. As the frontal boundary associated with the low to our west clips the western potion of the CWA, PoPs are briefly reintroduced at the tail end of the extended, but only at a slight to low end chance. As the drier airmass moderates, maximum temperatures will surge back into the low to mid 80s over the next week, as much as 7-10 degrees above average. Overnight lows will remain in the low to mid 60s, well above climo for this time of year. 96 && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... There is some potential for IFR cigs overnight due to copious low level moisture still in place. However, drying will occur through tomorrow, and only some sct/few cu possible. Light winds have switched over to the NE side, but could flip flop around due north overnight because of the light speeds. Winds should remain on the east side through tomorrow. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Med confidence IFR cigs overnight at ATL and wind direction. Otherwise, high confidence remaining elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 79 61 80 61 / 10 0 0 5 Atlanta 80 62 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 Blairsville 77 56 78 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cartersville 81 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 82 62 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Gainesville 79 61 79 61 / 5 0 0 0 Macon 81 62 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rome 83 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Peachtree City 81 60 81 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vidalia 79 65 82 64 / 20 0 5 5 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...King LONG TERM....96 AVIATION...NListemaa