363 
FXUS61 KBUF 082354
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
754 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level shortwave slowly approaching our region will push a 
few rain showers across our region mainly late tonight through 
Saturday night. Temperatures will maintain well above normal levels 
through the Columbus Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
This period a shortwave trough will approach the crest of an upper 
level ridge, advancing through the Great Lakes and into southern 
Canada. 

At the surface, south to southeast winds will persist. Moisture 
increasing ahead of the shortwave trough will thicken clouds slowly 
from west to east. 

While a stray shower is possible this evening, the better chances 
for any showers will come as the shortwave nears, first across far 
WNY late tonight, and then through the forecast area west of the 
Genesee Valley during day Saturday, with any remaining showers 
possibly clipping the Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday evening. Though 
not much, there is some elevated instability with a few hundred J/KG 
of MUCAPE possibly bringing a thunderstorm...mainly to areas near 
Lake Erie and near the western waters of Lake Ontario.

Given the overall weak forcing rainfall will likely be less than a 
tenth or two of an inch through this period.

The southeast flow will keep temperatures mild with lows only 
dropping into the mid 50s well inland, and low/mid 60s near the 
Lakes under a fair amount of clouds. High temperatures will range 
from low 60s inland Saturday to lower 70s across the Lake Plain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Near Record Temperatures During This Period...

An amplifying ridge over the region during this period will result 
in fair weather with temperatures that will average WELL above 
normal. In fact...high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will approach 
record levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...Above Normal Temperatures Will Likely Persist Through The 
End of This Period...

Near or "record" level temperatures will end during this period as a 
shortwave crosses the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. There 
even could be some showers with the cool front as it crosses the 
region. Wednesday, cooling aloft in the wake of the cool front will 
then help to nudge temperatures down a bit supporting highs 
generally in the low/mid 70s during the day. 

Wednesday night, a warm front will approach the eastern Great Lakes 
tied to the mid-level low tracking into the Upper Midwest. While 
most of the time will be dry, there will be increasing chances of 
showers through Friday as this system approaches and then impacts 
the area late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overall we'll have VFR conditions at the TAF sites through Saturday 
evening. There may be some showers over western NY later tonight 
through Saturday, but no significant visibility restrictions are 
expected. Only exception to VFR is over the Southern Tier where
building low level moisture ahead of an upper level shortwave 
may bring a lowering deck of clouds down to MVFR flight range 
late tonight into Saturday morning. MVFR clouds possible at KIAG
as well on Saturday.

Outlook... 

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds shift to the southeast and increase tonight and may approach 
small craft criteria across eastern Lake Ontario late tonight into 
Saturday ahead of a slow moving shortwave trough aloft. The flow 
will keep the higher waves tonight through Saturday over the 
Canadian waters. 

Behind the shortwave trough aloft winds and waves will begin to 
relax with conditions below small craft thresholds through the 
remainder of the holiday weekend and into the first half of next 
week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JLA/Thomas
MARINE...Thomas