725 FXUS63 KFGF 082349 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 649 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Have had a few severe thunderstorms across the central and northern Red River Valley this evening. All have had strong cores just above the freezing level, and 50dbz heights to just under 30 thousand feet. The problem is that the cores have been very tiny and in rural areas. Have not heard of any large hail reports yet. The storms will continue to remain across northwest Minnesota this evening, but should not be severe for too much longer. Otherwise, will be watching the low clouds across the northern Red River Valley, which the models show overspreading most of the area tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Rainfall amounts and chances for stronger convection remain the primary challenges for the period. Showers and thunderstorms continue to redevelop just behind the surface cold front currently extending from far northwestern MN into south central ND. Precipitation has been mostly developing over the same general area associated with the 925-850mb frontogenesis, with heavy rainfall in some areas. Radar estimates getting up over 3 inches in portions of Ramsey/Walsh/Cavalier/Pembina counties, but NDAWN reporting stations show a max of 1 to 2 inches, so radar estimates seem to be running a bit hot. However, PWAT values remain well above climo and will continue to monitor for heavy rainfall and flooding potential even with dry soils. Think the frontal boundary, along with the showers and thunderstorms, will finally move eastward later this evening as the shortwave along the central ND/SD border lifts through. There is a fair amount of elevated instability and even some decent ML CAPE across our southern counties. Deep layer bulk shear is pretty weak, and updrafts will be pretty pulsey. Could see some small hail, but think heavy rain is the greater impact. The convective activity will shift over into MN late evening into the overnight, and given the slow progression of current activity, think the second round will hold off until tomorrow morning. Adjusted POPs to slow progression of the second round across our western counties. Tomorrow, and even stronger shortwave trough starts to eject out into the Northern Plains, with some variation in the deterministic models in when exactly the system closes off. The surface low center will deepen and move into southeastern ND. Some breaks in the clouds are possible across the southern Red River Valley, which could help boost instability. Deep layer bulk shear is much more impressive Saturday afternoon, as well as low level turning in the hodographs. There is some indication that much of the instability will be elevated, but given that all sorts of weird things happen with the upper low over the area, will keep mention of all severe types going in our messaging. The upper low will move over our southern counties in Saturday night, with the surface low pressure center strengthening and lifting into northwestern MN. High chances for rain will continue for much of the night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A unsettled pattern is in store for the extended period as the upper features shows a predominantly split-jet scenario. For Sunday into Monday, shortwave and attendant surface system lifts northeastward with residual wrap-around rain impacting the area. Weak surface high pressure will shift across the area briefly ahead of the next wave. Return flow at the surface on Tuesday will moderate temperatures a bit but no significant warming is expected. Otherwise, the upper level trof over the intermountain west digs in and deepens as a series of disturbances rotate into the base of the trof. By Wednesday...the system becomes much more organized and has a good influx of moisture to feed it. The system is projected to lift north with rain spreading out ahead of it, as is typical of a fall type regime. The cold upper low will bring more seasonal temperatures, and the relatively slow movement of the system will result in precipitation continuing through the end of the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 649 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Showers and storms across northwest Minnesota will mainly affect KTVF and KBJI this evening. The bigger story after that is whether the low clouds in the northern Valley will overspread the entire area overnight, resulting in IFR conditions. This is the way the models are trending right now. The next batch of showers looks to arrive by mid Saturday morning, spreading from KFAR up to the northeast through the late morning and afternoon. A heavier batch is expected after this one too, for late afternoon and evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...Godon SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...Hopkins AVIATION...Godon