110 FXUS65 KABQ 082331 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 531 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF period with the gradual lowering of VFR cigs. Southwest flow will increase overnight in advance of an approaching trough. At the surface, winds will pick up late morning and get gusty during the afternoon hours. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Warm and windy conditions will continue Saturday over eastern NM with elevated rangeland fire concerns. The west will see thicker clouds and cooler temperatures ahead of the next storm system. Cooler temperatures will arrive Sunday for the entire area, along with breezy winds, higher terrain snow, and a couple showers and storms across northern NM. Monday will be warmer and breezy. A much colder storm system will move through Tuesday with wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph across southern and eastern NM. Light snow is possible over the northern mountains. A widespread freeze is likely across central and western NM on Wednesday morning. Tranquil weather is expected Thursday and Friday with warmer temperatures and sunny skies. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... The axis of the positively tilted trough will push eastward across the Great Basin tonight, setting its sights on NM tomorrow. Southwest flow ahead of the system will help to enhance orographic lift, which may drive showers across the high elevations of the San Juan Mts tonight. A potent 145 kt 300mb jet max will begin to push into Four Corners region early tomorrow morning as a lee-side sfc low deepens. Meanwhile, winds at 700mb increase to an impressive 60 kts across the northern Sangre de Cristo Mts. This will set the stage for strong southwest winds as early as 09Z Saturday, especially across the northern Sangre de Cristo Mts and their east slopes, where gusts as high as 60 mph can be expected. Thus, hoisted a High Wind Warning for the early morning hours into early afternoon tomorrow. A subsequent Wind Advisory may be needed in future updates for surrounding zones. Winds will remain elevated into the evening hours while the trough continues its passage. Temperatures across the west will begin to fall during the afternoon in the wake of the Pacific front. Temperatures across the east will remain well above normal - with some locales reaching near record - as downslope winds work to aid in compressional warming. Rain and snow chances increase moving into Saturday night as the trough begins to deepen across northern AZ, with the highest probabilities favoring the northwest plateau and San Juan Mts. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... By Sunday, a 565dm H5 low will carve out over western NM then slide east along the I-40 corridor into Sunday night. Model agreement is very good on strength and location of the low center but timing is off slightly, with the ECMWF solution the fastest. 12Z models all show a back door cold front entering northeast NM Sunday morning as large scale ascent improves over the region. A thin ribbon of higher subtropical moisture will advect across eastern NM while improving dynamics over the surface front aids numerous rain showers and a few storms by Sunday afternoon. Temps will be cold enough above 9,000' to support light snow accums in the Sangre de Cristos. Confidence is lower the farther west with regard to precip coverage due to timing issues on the departure of this first storm system. A shortwave ridge will crest over the region Monday with warming temps and breezy southwest winds. The next storm system will move in quickly from the Great Basin Tuesday morning. A potent mid and upper level jet max darting northeast over NM ahead of this feature will help spread strong southwest winds across the area, especially the south and east. Forecast winds continue trending higher and current speeds favor high winds with gusts up to 65 mph in some of the high terrain. The trajectory of the H5 low continues favoring a track toward the northeast across the Four Corners into north central CO. This path will limit rain/snow chances to the northwest high terrain with mostly wind impacts for NM. Max temps have also trended a few degrees warmer Tuesday, however overnight lows are still on target to fall below freezing across much of central and western NM. Wednesday looks nice with clearing skies, lighter winds, and warming temps. 12/Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS, NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY... Strong winds and low relative humidity values will create critical fire weather conditions Saturday across the northeast highlands, northeast plains, and east central plains. A strong upper level jet will traverse the area Saturday morning through Sunday. This will allow southwest winds to increase alongside above normal temperatures. While relative humidity values were borderline, the downslope wind regime alongside afternoon mixing is likely to lead to increased drying. As such, hoisted a Red Flag Warning for tomorrow afternoon. Cooler temperatures are expected in the wake of the Pacific system along with some wetting precipitation and high mountain snow accumulations on Sunday. Breezy conditions will persist, especially across the Continental Divide and westward, as well as across the central highlands and eastern plains. The next impact to fire weather will come on Tuesday as another system crosses into the area. Southwest winds will strengthen, this time having the potential to become very strong to damaging, with gusts around 60 mph. RH values remain above critical thresholds and colder temperatures will take hold of the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Wetting precipitation will be favored across the northern and western zones. Moderating conditions will be favored through the remainder of the week. 12 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108. High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 2 PM MDT Saturday for the following zones... NMZ213-215. && $$