197 FXUS63 KICT 082314 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 614 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Record breaking heat is expected on Saturday with hopefully our last bout of 90 degree plus temperatures until next Spring. Records are forecast to be broken or tied at: ICT (92 in 1963), CNU (94 in 1963), RSL (92 in 2020) and SLN (94 in 1921). See point forecast highs below for Saturday. The unseasonable heat and stronger south to southwest winds and relative dry daytime humidity will also result in elevated fire danger. (See fire weather section below). The main weather focus after the Saturday heat will be the welcome precipitation chances Sunday into early Monday, as the southern branch of the evolving western conus upper trof deepens into a closed low as it ejects out across Kansas and Oklahoma. As the previous forecaster alluded to, the moisture quality and instability into southeast Kansas looks marginal, though deep layer shear will be strong, so conditional severe episode cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, it appears a decent frontogenetic and more classic deformation zone will develop and transition across a good portion of the forecast area Sunday night, especially along the turnpike corridor. So confidence on rather widespread beneficial rainfall looks to be increasing based on the latest model consensus. After some lingering precip early Monday morning, it looks dry and seasonably mild by Monday afternoon. Darmofal .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Per previous forecaster, the upper flow pattern will remain active for Kansas and the central Plains next week. Another significant upper trof/low emerging from the Great Basin/Four Corners region on Tuesday is progged fairly well to deepen as it lifts bodily northeastward across the central/northern Plans into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This system looks to ingest deeper low level moisture and potential instability ahead of a more classic dry-line/Pacific front, as it sweeps east-northeastward across the area. While confidence appears high on the overall scenario, timing (be it faster or slower) could change with the sensible weather features, which will effect the potential severe weather mode/magnitude. So stay tuned! KED && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Some scattered cirrus will continue to spread across the area tonight and Saturday. Meanwhile, light southeasterly winds tonight will begin to increase and veer to the southwest on Saturday. Gusts in the 30-35 knot range may be common through the afternoon hours before subsiding some toward evening. A developing LLJ tonight will nose into southern Kansas bringing some marginal low level wind shear to portions of southern Kansas including KCNU. VFR will prevail through the 24-hr period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Very high and near critical fire danger is expected on Saturday afternoon across the entire area. South to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph are expected along and east of the Kansas turnpike. Daytime humidity levels will be low as well in the afternoon from 20 to 30 percent, with lowest values west of I-135. Outdoor burning is highly discouraged on Saturday. KED && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 63 96 64 82 / 0 0 0 30 Hutchinson 60 97 62 77 / 0 0 0 30 Newton 63 95 63 79 / 0 0 0 30 ElDorado 64 94 64 82 / 0 0 0 30 Winfield-KWLD 66 97 66 85 / 0 0 0 30 Russell 59 93 58 71 / 0 0 10 20 Great Bend 58 94 59 69 / 0 0 10 30 Salina 60 96 61 75 / 0 0 10 30 McPherson 60 96 61 76 / 0 0 10 30 Coffeyville 67 95 68 88 / 0 0 0 30 Chanute 66 94 67 86 / 0 0 10 30 Iola 65 92 66 85 / 0 0 10 30 Parsons-KPPF 67 94 67 87 / 0 0 0 30 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KED LONG TERM...KED AVIATION...MWM FIRE WEATHER...KED