670 
FXUS65 KLKN 082201
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
301 PM PDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Look for cool and wet conditions to continue through 
the upcoming weekend. Look for a brief period of dry weather on 
Sunday before a new system drops temperatures even further and 
brings chances of snow, for the start of next week. A return to 
dry and slightly warmer conditions is likely by the end of next 
week as high pressure builds back in the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. Models are in fairly good 
agreement during the near term. Showers with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms have developed earlier and continue to spread 
across northern and central Nevada. Where there has been rainfall,
amounts have been fairly decent. The activity is expected to 
continue as the area of low pressure transits the region through 
tonight. Overnight lows will be in the 30s, though if the central
locations see some clearing, temperatures could drop into the 20s.

The storm system will continue its eastward progression for 
Saturday as precipitation chances wane from west to east during 
the day. North to northwest flow will help to keep a lid on 
afternoon highs as readings will not rebound too much – mainly 
in the 50s to maybe 60s. Winds will be breezy during the 
afternoon, especially over northeast Nevada. Relatively clear 
skies and quiet weather conditions will be the rule for the 
overnight. Many locations will be in the 20s.

For Sunday, brief short wave ridging will move into northern and
central Nevada. The area will dry out for a short time, as the
ridge will exit the area quickly, allowing for a stronger area of
low pressure to move in behind it.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday

During the overnight hours of Thursday into Friday, the leading 
nose of a deepening trough paired with a cold front moves in from 
our North. This brings showers to northern/northwestern Nevada 
first, and spreads to central and eastern Nevada as the trough 
deepens somewhere over our region. Measurable snowfall looks
likely in the mountains, and the snow level lowers as more cold
air fills in. The question now remains as to whether or not the
snow level can reach valley floors. If snow can reach the valley
floors, the progression would be rain on Monday, rain/snow Monday
evening, and then snow on Tuesday. There is also still some 
question as the where the closed low that is expected to form sets
up. In turn, this makes it a little challenging to hone in on a 
more specific location as well as specific timing of 
precipitation. As it stands, it looks like the bulk of the 
moisture moves out Tuesday evening, and allows for showers to 
taper off.

As the jet stream pivots around the base of the trough, winds 
pick up on Monday and Tuesday, particularly in northern Nye county
where winds may be up to 25 mph with gusts approaching 40 mph. 
With the wind expected to have a northwesterly direction, this may
pose some difficulty with driving along U.S. Route 6 through 
northern Nye county.

Arguably, the most impressive feature of this pattern is the cold
air that its bringing in. As cold air fills in behind the front, 
afternoon highs on Monday and Tuesday in the 30s and 40s. Tuesday 
should be the colder of the two. To put this in perspective, 
temperatures for this time of the month are typically in the 60s 
and low 70s. This also results in overnight lows in the teens and 
20s. 

North to northwesterly flows helps to keep some locations in
eastern Nevada cold on Wednesday and Thursday, but some weak
ridging that builds in helps to switch the flow aloft and give
temperatures a chance to moderate by Friday. 

&&

.AVIATION...While widespread showers are slowly working their way
out of the KEKO and KELY areas, spotty showers pop up in the 
vicinity of all sites overnight and through tomorrow afternoon. 
With the ample moisture in the region, there is a chance of MVFR 
conditions overnight into early tomorrow morning at all sites, 
with the exception of KWMC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A fairly wet system will move across the area
tonight and into tomorrow. Rain amounts are expected to be fairly
robust and temperatures will be below normal. By Sunday, weak
ridging will push into the area with a brief dry spell. However,
waiting in the wings is another storm system. This one will be
much colder with the potential of dropping the first snow in some
valley locations.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday 
for Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

&&

$$

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