489 FXUS62 KGSP 082151 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 551 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure moves into the Great Lakes today but periods of widespread showers and locally heavy rainfall are still possible. Moisture lingers over the area Saturday as a surface low pressure center moves north along the Carolina Coast. Dry high pressure builds in on Sunday and remains in place through next week with warming temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 530 PM...The remaining shower activity has split into two separate camps. To the east of the Charlotte metro area, steadier rain associated with forcing lifting out of the upper trof axis was exiting the forecast area. Meanwhile...scattered showers were developing mainly over the higher terrain where clearing has allowed for sfc-based CAPE underneath the upper trof to the tune of 1500 J/kg. Won't rule out some isolated flooding, and there is some ongoing minor flooding that could be exacerbated if any thunderstorms develop in the wrong spots. Rain and thunder will begin to end from west to east across the region this evening as upper system ejects northeastward, and surface winds become more northerly. Rain and clouds will keep temperatures seasonally mild again tonight. Depending on how shallow the boundary layer can get, may see some patchy dense fog in spots, but overall low stratus clouds are more favored. Finally some drier weather will begin to take hold, at least across the western portions of the area, on Saturday. A developing low off the Carolina coast will continue to wrap moisture around into the NC Piedmont, which could keep it mostly cloudy with spotty showers. Probably not enough instability or forcing for thunder. Further west, less cloud cover should allow temps to warm to near normal Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 100 PM Friday: The beginning portion of the short-term will bring much needed changes to the overall forecast. A surface low off of the North Carolina coast will gradually lift northward and shift the low-level flow from easterly to northeasterly Saturday night. This will produce a low-level subsidence inversion and dissipate most of the activity across the CFWA, with the exception of a few lingering showers in the far eastern zones. The surface low will struggle to develop tropical features due to the closed upper low over the Florida Peninsula. This feature will be in the vicinity of the Outer Banks Sunday and will more or less keep the CFWA mostly dry. The ECMWF is keen on keeping some sort of precip in the area, but height rises will begin to the filter in from the west during the day and most of the model guidance allows the CFWA to remain mostly capped with the additional subsidence. The upper ridge will begin to take control the overall weather pattern by early next week with a warming trend in store. Fingers crossed for drier weather! Hoping the 12Z ECMWF run is just out to lunch since it is the outlier that keeps the area relatively active through a decent portion of the forecast period. Otherwise, mostly dry weather and high temperatures to be a few degrees above normal, while lows end up 5-10 degrees above normal both Sunday and Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 PM Friday: The overall synoptic pattern will be controlled by the aforementioned upper ridge through much of the period. A potent shortwave trough will push through the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes that could provide enough support for a few isolated showers to develop over the mountains Tuesday. The upper ridge continues to set up shop over the East Coast through the rest of the extended. Broad upper trough to the west will begin to push the upper ridge offshore by day 6 and 7 and encroach the region with an attendant cold front. In this scenario, the pattern will begin to change from the unseasonably warm weather the CFWA will experience during the medium range with temperatures expected to be ~5-10 degrees above normal for both highs and lows through the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: The more widespread -RA and embedded heavier showers is slowly shifting to the east, but additional isolated to scattered showers will continue to develop across the area thru the aftn. The convection will then become mostly confined to the NC Piedmont tonight, warranting continued mention of -SHRA at KCLT thru the evening. There are some breaks in the clouds across the west, but overall CIGS should stay MVFR, except breaking out to VFR at KAVL and KAND at times into this evening. Then expect low stratus to fill back in across the area, with IFR to LIFR cigs possible. Patchy fog is possible, but not expected to be widespread at this time. Stratus should improve across the Upstate and KAVL Saturday morning, as some drier air filters in from the north. However, Atlantic moisture will wrap around low off the Carolina coast and may continue to keep KCLT in some lower CIGS possibly well into the aftn, with spotty -SHRA possible. Winds will be generally 5-10 kts out of the NE, but lighter and more variable at KAVL. Outlook: Finally, some drier air will try to work in from the west over the weekend. However, low-level moisture may linger, keeping a chance of low cigs and fog returning from the east Saturday night into Sunday morning. This may occur again Sunday night, at least across portions of the NC Piedmont. But otherwise, should be dry and VFR heading into early next week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CAC NEAR TERM...ARK/PM SHORT TERM...CAC LONG TERM...CAC AVIATION...ARK