811 
FXUS63 KOAX 082013
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
313 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Summary: 

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the 
weekend with near-record highs Saturday. Mostly dry conditions 
are expected for much of the area through Tuesday, with the 
exception of some small chances of rain in northeast Nebraska
Saturday night and again on Monday across extreme southeast 
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Otherwise, a wet/stormy pattern 
Tuesday night into Wednesday looks likely. Trends are looking 
cooler and drier towards the end of next week. 

Tonight through Sunday:

Mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures are expected as 
weak upper-level ridging moves eastward across the area. Will 
continue our trend of forecasting slightly above guidance for 
Saturday, especially south of I-80 where cirrus may hold off 
through peak heating. Strong mixing should allow temperatures 
south of I-80 to reach the upper 80s to near 90s. Records are as 
follows: 

Omaha 88 set in 1928
Lincoln 90 set 1928 and 1921

An upper-level trough will push through the northern Plains Saturday 
night allowing a cold front to slide through the area. The bulk of 
precipitation with this system will remain far to our north but a 
few light showers are possible along the boundary as it pushes 
south.  This front will also bring cooler temperatures to the area 
Sunday with highs generally in the lower to mid 70s with our region 
in between a potent low moving east/northeast over the southern 
Plains and another moving northeast across the Dakotas and into 
northern MN. Will hold onto some lower pops in our southeastern CWA 
in association with the southern low into early Monday. 

Tuesday through Friday:

A robust longwave trough is expected to move into the central High 
Plains region by late Tuesday with continued uncertainty on timing 
but model solutions are coming into better agreement. Medium range 
model guidance suggests that a compact, negatively tilted shortwave 
trough will eject into the central High Plains Tuesday. With strong 
forcing for ascent and ample moisture return due to strong 
southerly winds ahead of the system, widespread heavy rainfall and
strong thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Wednesday. This
potentially impactful storm system is expected to have a 
significant drop in surface pressure Tuesday going into Wednesday,
posing a threat for strong winds throughout the region through 
Wednesday night. Also by this time, the storm system is expected 
to weaken and accelerate northward through the northern Plains 
into western Ontario. Behind this storm system, temperatures are 
expected to fall to below normal, with low temperature dipping 
into the 40s and afternoon highs in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle with
southeasterly surface winds under 10kts. Mainly a few cirrus
clouds floating overhead through the next 24 hours.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kern/Darrah
AVIATION...Kern