338 FXUS63 KMQT 081946 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 346 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 345 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 If you have gone outside today so far, you will notice that it is unseasonably warm, and humid outdoors. While this is certainly not unheard of for the first week of October in Upper Michigan, the fall foliage doesn't match the observed weather pattern presently. Satellite imagery as of 19Z this afternoon shows the low stratiform cloud cover beginning to wane over the west half, and even a few areas seeing peaks of sunshine. Dew points in the lower to middle 60s combined with surface obs in the middle to upper 60s make a good case of why the low clouds and fog were present for a majority of the day thus far across the area. Abundant moisture advection continues to occur over our area as the broad surface low pressure over the Lower Great Lakes funnels in higher dew points from the southeast CONUS. GOES WV analysis shows abundant moisture aloft, with a narrow band of dry air remaining to the east as the stacked upper level low circulates over southern Lake Michigan this afternoon. For those that have been following the weather patterns over the last week or so, the present occluded ULL is the remnants of what we had over our area last weekend that resulted in fog, drizzle, and low clouds. This ULL moved from the Great Lakes to the Southeast CONUS, and then slowly became absorbed with the main upper level flow the past couple of days as it retrograded further to the north-northwest over the Great Lakes once again. All of that being said, this slow-moving weather system will slowly trek to the north and northeast for the short term forecast, resulting in scattered showers across Upper Michigan, which has been observed throughout the day thus far on radar. Areas that have partial clearing in sky coverage could see a brief heavier rain shower, and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Although, SPC Mesoanalysis shows very little with regard to instability across the area...less than 500 J/kg. Marginal lapse rates of 5-6 degrees C/km are present, mainly along the WI/MI border. Without a strong forcing mechanism, the expectation is that a majority of areas will see brief rain showers, and very little to no thunder. For tonight, moisture advection will continue to be funneled into the area courtesy of the occluded ULL. With WAA at 850mb also, the warm temperatures will not be disappearing. Elevated dew points close to surface temperatures overnight will result in very low cloud cigs, and patchy fog across several areas of Upper Michigan. Especially in locations that see rain showers. Expect overnight lows to drop down to the upper 50s to low 60s. It will be an unseasonable warm and muggy night. Saturday will see low clouds slowly erode as rain showers push to the east through morning into the early afternoon. Partly cloudy skies are likely for the west half as zonal to weak ridging aloft at H5 occurs from midday Saturday through the late afternoon. This will help temperatures elevate slightly into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Went with a conservative blend of temperatures for Saturday, but a couple of Hi-res members do hint at temperatures across the interior, and near the northern lakeshores reaching the low to middle 70s due to downslope effects from weak southerly winds. However, the expectation is that cloud cover will be slow to erode away, so went with highs near 70 to the lower 70s for most areas. With the elevated dew points remaining across the area near 60 for Saturday, the muggy conditions will remain across the area also. The break in any cloud cover will be short lived for the west half as the next weather system approaches from the Upper Midwest late Saturday evening, resulting in another round of cloud cover approaching Upper Michigan. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 413 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 Not much change in terms of the overall expectations for this forecast period as compared to previously. The primary 'headlines' continue to be the unseasonable warmth along with the unsettled pattern already underway into next week for the U.P. High temperatures will be well into the 60s and 70s this weekend as ample amounts of warm, moist air continuously flows into Upper Michigan. Some moderation in the temps can be expected early next week behind a couple of passing lows, but ultimately, these well- above normal temps hold steady through much of next week. By week's end, there are indications that cooler air (closer toward normal) arrives. Low temps will respond accordingly, struggling to drop below the 50 degree mark this weekend, with 40s looking to reappear next week. As previously discussed, a few disturbances crossing the Upper Great Lakes will allow for multiple precipitation chances. Although a weak trough will be moving through on Saturday, overall drier conditions (just won't feel it at the surface with 50s and 60s dewpoints hanging around, another metric of the ongoing unusual weather locally) will briefly pass through. The combination of losing a lifting mechanism (the exiting trough) as well as loss of moisture aloft yields limited PoPs for most except for primarily portions of the eastern U.P. This won't last long though as a more organized low quickly marches across MN on the former weak trough's heels. With the stronger low, instability will accompany it, as well as much higher shear values and the return of more supportive PWATs. Therefore, thunder can be anticipated, but it is additionally worth noting that some stronger storms may be able to develop given the aligning parameters, particularly under an additional boost diurnally-speaking, given the timing. But, the pattern remains progressive as yet the next low approaches and crosses Upper Michigan, tracking further west according to the models as compared to runs just over 24 hours ago. Another slight change is that it doesn't look to weaken as much as prior model runs. Regardless of these slight shifts in the forecast, precip chances remain area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Should see a brief break mid-week before yet another, even more stout-looking low approaches and crosses the region. However, models continue to diverge from one another, with fairly significant differences in tracking/their projected paths. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 114 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 A broad surface low pressure continues to slowly move northeast into Lower Michigan this afternoon resulting in mostly IFR to MVFR flight conditions at the Upper Michigan terminals. At KSAW and KCMX, expect low end MVFR this afternoon, with possible fluctuations to high end IFR as brief VCSH to -shra occurs at times. At KIWD, expect high end MVFR, with fluctuations to low end VFR periods at times. Expect IFR cigs to return to all of the terminals tonight as moisture continues to be brought into the region from the surface low pressure, with LIFR cigs likely at KSAW. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 224 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 A broad area of surface low pressure will slowly move through the region today and Saturday, with winds from the east and southeast of generally 15 kts or less through Saturday evening. The forecast still continues to trend this weekend toward another surface low pressure moving from the Central Plains to the northeast into far western Ontario by Sunday. The surface low is forecast to remain north of the lake causing wind gusts from the SE at 20-30 kts on Sunday, mainly on the east half. Gale force gusts may be possible on the east half, followed by a period of WSW winds around 20 kts Sunday night and Monday, mainly on the west half. Light winds should return for Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. Another weather system will approach the Great Lakes on Wednesday night, bringing the opportunity for wind gusts of 20-25 kts across the lake. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...lg AVIATION...BW MARINE...BW