148 
FXUS64 KSJT 081900
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
200 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Expect low level southerly flow to continue tonight and Saturday. 
The winds will gust to around 30 mph late Saturday morning and 
afternoon, especially across the Big Country and Concho Valley. 
Overnight lows will be in the 60s and hot temperatures Saturday with 
highs in the 90s. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

An ongoing 500mb ridge over the southern Plains should keep 
warmer than normal temperatures and dry conditions in place 
through Sunday afternoon. This will be followed by a significant 
pattern change starting Sunday night into Monday morning. A fast-
moving shortwave trough is expected to move through the southern 
and central Plains, dragging a surface cold front with it. Models 
over the past 24 hours have trended drier with this system, 
pushing showers and thunderstorm development towards the eastern 
fringe of counties late Sunday night and early Monday morning. For
now, PoPs were kept to 20-30 percent for the Sunday night period 
and confined mainly in our southeast counties. After this system 
moves quickly out of the region by Monday afternoon, an even 
stronger one looks to push into the Rockies on Tuesday, then 
occlude over the northern and central Plains by midweek. This 
will push a stronger cold front into Texas on Wednesday, which may
stall across the Hill Country Thursday into Friday. Although 
there are still timing and evolution differences amongst the 
global models, they all show much better rain chances and cooler 
conditions for midweek and beyond. For now, chances will generally
be kept to 20-40 percent for Tuesday through Friday and further 
refined in upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Expect VFR for the next 24 hours. The winds will be from the south
and gusty this afternoon. Also, a few gusts are possible tonight. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  95  68  93 /   0   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 65  94  67  92 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 60  92  66  94 /   0   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 62  92  65  92 /   0   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 66  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 61  89  66  91 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...21