924 FXUS61 KBUF 081855 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 255 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level shortwave slowly approaching our region will push a few rain showers across our region late tonight through tomorrow night. Temperatures will maintain well above normal levels through the Columbus Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... This period a shortwave trough will approach the crest of an upper level ridge, advancing through the Great Lakes and into southern Canada. At the surface south to southeast winds will remain. Moisture increasing ahead of the shortwave trough will thicken clouds slowly from west to east. While a stray shower or sprinkle is possible through the remainder of the afternoon and evening, the better chances for any showers will come as the shortwave nears...first across far WNY late tonight, and then through the forecast area west of the Genesee Valley during day Saturday, with any remaining showers possibly clipping the Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday evening. Though not much, there is some elevated instability with a few hundred J/KG of MUCAPE possibly bringing a thunderstorm...mainly to areas near Lake Erie and near the western waters of Lake Ontario. Given the overall weak forcing rainfall will likely be less than a tenth or two of an inch through this period. The southeast flow will keep temperatures mild with lows only dropping into the mid 50s well inland, and low/mid 60s near the Lakes under a fair amount of clouds. High temperatures will range from low 60s inland Saturday to lower 70s across the Lake Plain. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Near Record Temperatures During This Period... An amplifying ridge over the region during this period will result in fair weather with temperatures that will average WELL above normal. In fact...high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will approach record levels. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...Above Normal Temperatures Will Likely Persist Through The End of This Period... Near or "record" level temperatures will end during this period as a shortwave crosses the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. There even could be some showers with the cool front as it crosses the region. Wednesday, cooling aloft in the wake of the cool front will then help to nudge temperatures down a bit supporting highs generally in the low/mid 70s during the day. Wednesday night, a warm front will approach the eastern Great Lakes tied to the mid-level low tracking into the Upper Midwest. While most of the time will be dry, there will be increasing chances of showers through Friday as this system approaches and then impacts the area late in the week. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... For the 18Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found. A south- southeasterly flow through this period will likely maintain these VFR flight conditions...with the exception of the Southern Tier where building low level moisture ahead of an upper level shortwave may bring a lowering deck of clouds down to MVFR flight range. A stray shower is possible mainly the last 6 to 9 hours of the TAF cycle towards the far west. Outlook... Saturday Night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Winds shift to the southeast and increase tonight and may approach small craft criteria across eastern Lake Ontario late tonight into Saturday ahead of a slow moving shortwave trough aloft. The flow will keep the higher waves tonight...and then through Saturday over the Canadian waters. Behind the shortwave trough aloft winds and waves will begin to relax with conditions below small craft thresholds through the remainder of the holiday weekend and into the first half of next week. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Thomas SHORT TERM...RSH LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas