084 FXUS63 KMQT 081824 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 224 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 Water vapor satellite and SPC Mesoanalysis show the upper-level low that has been slowly crawling northward through the Mississippi Valley is now centered over northern Illinois. Mesoanalysis shows a band of vorticity at 500 mb oriented WNW to ESE through Wisconsin and northern Lower Michigan. Implied dCVA along and north of that vort line is forcing a broken band of showers which will continue to lift northward this morning, crossing the U.P. between about now and 12z. Dew points in the low to mid 60s advecting northward across Lake Michigan and then being forced upslope by a light SE wind is leading to low clouds and mist over the central U.P. Some of this mist may thicken into fog this morning, but for the most part visibility should remain around 1/2 mile or more. Today, as the ULL continues to slowly lift northward across Lake Michigan, expect thick low level cloud cover to continue. However, the fog should gradually mix out by late morning. Additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible throughout the day. Opted not to include any thunder in the forecast since currently the closest lightning is near Milwaukee and model soundings for this afternoon show only a very thin CAPE profile. However, an isolated rumble of thunder can't completely be ruled out. Look for highs in the mid to upper 60s. Tonight, the ULL will make its closest pass to the U.P., passing over about Traverse City. In doing so, there will be additional scattered showers for the eastern U.P. Meanwhile, the west half will dry out. Low cloud cover will persist through the night which will keep lows very warm for this time of year, in the upper 50s and low 60s. More patchy fog could develop as well, mainly central and east. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 413 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 Not much change in terms of the overall expectations for this forecast period as compared to previously. The primary 'headlines' continue to be the unseasonable warmth along with the unsettled pattern already underway into next week for the U.P. High temperatures will be well into the 60s and 70s this weekend as ample amounts of warm, moist air continuously flows into Upper Michigan. Some moderation in the temps can be expected early next week behind a couple of passing lows, but ultimately, these well- above normal temps hold steady through much of next week. By week's end, there are indications that cooler air (closer toward normal) arrives. Low temps will respond accordingly, struggling to drop below the 50 degree mark this weekend, with 40s looking to reappear next week. As previously discussed, a few disturbances crossing the Upper Great Lakes will allow for multiple precipitation chances. Although a weak trough will be moving through on Saturday, overall drier conditions (just won't feel it at the surface with 50s and 60s dewpoints hanging around, another metric of the ongoing unusual weather locally) will briefly pass through. The combination of losing a lifting mechanism (the exiting trough) as well as loss of moisture aloft yields limited PoPs for most except for primarily portions of the eastern U.P. This won't last long though as a more organized low quickly marches across MN on the former weak trough's heels. With the stronger low, instability will accompany it, as well as much higher shear values and the return of more supportive PWATs. Therefore, thunder can be anticipated, but it is additionally worth noting that some stronger storms may be able to develop given the aligning parameters, particularly under an additional boost diurnally-speaking, given the timing. But, the pattern remains progressive as yet the next low approaches and crosses Upper Michigan, tracking further west according to the models as compared to runs just over 24 hours ago. Another slight change is that it doesn't look to weaken as much as prior model runs. Regardless of these slight shifts in the forecast, precip chances remain area-wide Monday into Tuesday. Should see a brief break mid-week before yet another, even more stout-looking low approaches and crosses the region. However, models continue to diverge from one another, with fairly significant differences in tracking/their projected paths. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 114 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 A broad surface low pressure continues to slowly move northeast into Lower Michigan this afternoon resulting in mostly IFR to MVFR flight conditions at the Upper Michigan terminals. At KSAW and KCMX, expect low end MVFR this afternoon, with possible fluctuations to high end IFR as brief VCSH to -shra occurs at times. At KIWD, expect high end MVFR, with fluctuations to low end VFR periods at times. Expect IFR cigs to return to all of the terminals tonight as moisture continues to be brought into the region from the surface low pressure, with LIFR cigs likely at KSAW. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 224 PM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 A broad area of surface low pressure will slowly move through the region today and Saturday, with winds from the east and southeast of generally 15 kts or less through Saturday evening. The forecast still continues to trend this weekend toward another surface low pressure moving from the Central Plains to the northeast into far western Ontario by Sunday. The surface low is forecast to remain north of the lake causing wind gusts from the SE at 20-30 kts on Sunday, mainly on the east half. Gale force gusts may be possible on the east half, followed by a period of WSW winds around 20 kts Sunday night and Monday, mainly on the west half. Light winds should return for Monday night through Wednesday afternoon. Another weather system will approach the Great Lakes on Wednesday night, bringing the opportunity for wind gusts of 20-25 kts across the lake. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJC LONG TERM...lg AVIATION...BW MARINE...BW