260 FXUS65 KPUB 081818 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1218 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Southwest flow aloft will be increasing today ahead of the broad upper-level trough making its way towards our area, along with the associated low pressure system. The transition of the trough axis will allow for more moisture to pool into the Four Corners region and move into western Colorado. The southwest flow will assist in providing some orographic lift, which will result in some showers, both rain and snow, over the higher elevations of the San Juan Mountains and parts of the Continental Divide today and tonight. While winds will be increasing both aloft and near the surface today, conditions for fire weather risks are still marginal, given the synoptic-scale wind pattern won't be strong enough to push things over critical thresholds. However, there are several places near the Palmer Divide and the San Luis Valley that may get close this afternoon. High temperatures today will be, once again, above average, with mid-high 80s over the plains and mid-70s over the valleys. Tonight will be fairly mild and cool, with 40s-50s over the area. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 ...Several concerns for this long term forecast period: 1. Synoptically evident RED FLAG day Saturday. 2. Strong winds along mtn/plains interface Saturday. 3. How much precip Sunday? 4. Hard Freeze San Luis Valley Monday AM/Patchy frost Plains. 5. Which way will the Pacific closed low track TUES/WED? ... Saturday... Red Flag conditions are on track for Saturday as a strong 120-140 kt jet tracks across the state. This strong jet combined with dry adiabatic lapse rates to 600mb will allow for stout mixing to occur this day. The combination of the strong surface winds and low RH values will allow for rapid fire spread should a fire start. Current watch may need to be tweaked to include areas farther west and north, and will likely be upgraded later today. Areas along the southern Sangre De Cristos south of La Veta pass may be very windy Saturday, especially in the morning. Sunday... Models have continued to trend drier regarding precip for the area on this day, and pops are now 20 to 30 percent lower for the areas along the CO/NM border. I would not be surprised if these values continue to drop as forcing does not look all that favorable for widespread precip. However, confidence remains high that it will be sharply cooler Sunday as compared to Saturday. Widespread freezing temperatures are likely to occur across all of the San Luis Valley (SLV) Sunday morning, but values will likely be in the 28-30F range. Monday... Monday morning will start off rather chilly across the region. A HARD FREEZE is likely for the SLV Monday morning with temperatures in the mid 20s across all of the valley floor. The plain will likely be in the mid 30s to around 40F, but patchy freezing temps will be possible. On Monday, forecast area will be in-between systems, as a quick short wave ridge will move across the region on this day. Likewise anticipate dry weather to dominate on this day with pleasant max temperatures in the 70s plains and 60s valleys. Tuesday... Lots of uncertainty this day. Confidence is high that a significant system will track across the Rockies, but the location of this track is quite uncertain. The deterministic output varies greatly between the Euro and GFS, with the GFS being much farther south and slower while the Euro is much farther north and quicker. Looking at the ensemble statistics, the pop/temp numbers show wide distributions so confidence is very low on what is going to happen on this event. For now believe it is best to play the "middle of the road" with the central mtns likely receiving the first decent snow of the year while the plains will likely remain dry and very windy. With this said, if the more southern solution occurs, then the plains, especially the Palmer Divide, could see some significant sensible weather Tuesday night. For the remainder of next week, expect dry and seasonable conditions. There will likely be an increasing chance of some freezing temps on the plains during this period. \/Hodanish && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1212 PM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 VFR conditions are expected at KPUB, KCOS, and KALS through the forecast period. South to southwest winds are expected to increase this afternoon, with gusts reaching around 20-25 kt at KCOS and KALS. Winds will diminish tonight, before strong southwest to west winds develop on Saturday. Wind gusts may reach around 20-30 kt at KCOS and KALS after 16Z Saturday, with winds strengthening at all TAF sites thereafter. Areas of blowing dust locally reducing visibilities may become a concern later on Saturday. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for COZ227-228-231>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...HODANISH AVIATION...COHEN