867 FXUS63 KAPX 081814 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 214 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 High impact weather potential: Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Another night of patchy dense fog expected tonight. Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper-level ridging continues to encompass the Northeast states this afternoon as closed upper low pressure continues to spin across far southern WI/northern IL. This wave will weaken/open as it treks northeastward across the northern Great Lakes tonight into Saturday. As a result, ongoing surface pressure falls will continue amidst surrounding high pressure remaining in place across the eastern third of the CONUS. Ongoing southeasterly flow/weak warm, moist advection will continue to bring deep moisture into the region -- evident by PWATs near 1.50" per APX's 12z raob...some +2 to 3 SD above the early-mid October mean. Combined with pockets of better forcing for ascent sliding through the area this afternoon and evening, more widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm potential exists before precip chances wane overnight. Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Shower coverage, thunderstorm chances, and renewed fog potential tonight. Lots of clouds continue this afternoon across northern Michigan with only sporadic peeks of sun in spots across the lower peninsula. None the less, latest mesoanalysis reveals 500-1,000 J/kg of MUCAPE has been advected across much of northern lower, and when combined with better forcing beginning to rotate northward across the forecast area, yields additional shower and scattered non-severe thunderstorms ongoing across far southern reaches of the area. Expecting this activity to gradually push northward through the remainder of the daylight hours before gradually losing steam with the loss of daylight and as precip outruns the best large scale support. Wide range of potential QPF through this time frame...ranging from less than a tenth of an inch to perhaps some localized amounts of 0.50"+ in any thunderstorms. Precip chances continue to wane heading into the evening hours... hanging on longest across northeast lower and the eastern UP. However, conditions don't greatly improve from the last several nights as another round of low clouds and locally dense fog is expected to develop across much of the area -- only aided by increased low-level moisture from today's shower/storm activity. Certainly some low visibilities anticipated, especially along/east of I-75 in both northern lower and eastern upper and another night to use caution and allow extra time if traveling. Low temps tonight remaining some 20 degrees above early-mid October normals, which would typically range from the mid 30s to 40 degrees. && .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 High impact weather potential: Thunder possible each day, although none expected to be severe at this time. A cut off low over northern Michigan will continue to move very slowly northeastward...impacting northern Michigan's weather throughout the remainder of the weekend. An associated vort max will be overhead as well, continuing chances of showers and thunder through Saturday night. Rain could be heavy at times as forecast soundings show the tell-tale skinny CAPE profiles Saturday with around 400 J/Kg MLCAPE and the overnight hours of around 500-600 J/Kg MUCAPE. These forecast soundings have around 1.25" PWATS through Saturday night. Another developing area of low pressure over the northern Great Plains will continue advecting moisture into our area on southerly winds behind the departing cut off low Sunday. This will continue to produce chances of showers and drizzle Sunday, but moisture will not be as deep and a deep warm nose develops on the stronger southerly winds aloft. Should be mostly a drizzly and dreary day. Another wave approaches Monday from the northwest with a deepening low pressure over the western Great Lakes region producing our next round of showers/storms along with some gusty southerly winds. Winds will continue to be generally southeasterly and fairly light, with maybe some afternoon breezes of around 10mph Saturday. The winds veer to more southerly ahead of the next approaching storm system and ramp up in intensity with gusts of 20-25 mph Sunday and Monday. With this southerly flow above normal temperatures for this time of the year continues...with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and overnight lows only dropping into the mid to upper 50s. Monday could see some locations flirting with record daytime highs...pushing 80 degrees. && .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 High impact weather potential: Minimal. Long range models continue to show a very progressive pattern, with systems themselves or tail ends of the systems traversing through the Great Lakes region. This will continue to produce chances of showers/storms and above normal temperatures through the remainder of the long term period with a mainly southerly flow. Temperatures appear to remain above normal with daytime highs hovering around 70 degrees each day. The end of next work week into the beginning of the next weekend finally show some signs of continued northwesterly flow and cooler temperatures bearing down on northern Michigan as a strong and large high pressure center builds over the central CONUS. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 107 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Lots of clouds continue across northern Michigan with just a few peeks of sun across far northwest lower Michigan. Expecting more clouds than sun through the remainder of the daylight hours as the next batch of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms trek from central lower Michigan northward across northern lower over the next several hours. Additional more isolated showers/storms possible beyond this steadier batch as we head into the evening/overnight hours, along with additional low clouds (LIFR/IFR cigs) and locally dense fog with localized LIFR/IFR vsbys once again. && .MARINE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A sprawling storm system will continue to move northeastward from the IL/WI border toward the northern Great Lakes tonight through Saturday. As a result, occasional periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected. Mainly light southeasterly winds this afternoon will become light/variable overnight before turning more southerly during the day Saturday. Gustier winds are possible Sunday with the arrival of another system from the northwest...potentially posing the next opportunity for winds/waves to reach SCA criteria. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MG SHORT TERM...TL LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...MG MARINE...MG