737 FXUS63 KBIS 081735 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1235 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Limited PoPs for the remainder of the day in order to achieve "isolated" wording. Thunderstorms in northeastern North Dakota along the stationary front do not appear to be building any further west while showers in southwestern South Dakota are producing little, if any, precipitation. Most CAMs hold off on any form of organized showers or possible thunderstorms until late tonight. May reduce daytime and early evening PoPs further for the afternoon package. UPDATE Issued at 1009 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Thick smoke is covering most of the forecast area leading to visibility reductions of 3 to 5 miles over large parts of the area. HRRRSmoke doesn't appear to be capturing the smoke well, although it is pretty clear on Geocolor satellite in the few areas where clouds are non-existent. Thus upped patchy smoke to areas of smoke. Also added patchy smoke to the southeastern portion of the CWA where Geocolor satellite indicates it's moving towards. Bowman radar returns show scattered showers entering southwestern North Dakota. These should move to the northeast today and remain isolated to scattered in nature while producing little total precipitation before more impactful rains begin tonight. UPDATE Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Isolated showers continue to linger across northern areas this morning. Look for these to slowly move out of the region or dissipate this morning. Clearing across the south has brought some patchy fog this morning. Updated to add this in for the next few hours. Meanwhile haze and smoke remain for areas across the north and west, and could linger through the day. The remainder of the day sees another round of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms develop across the area. An isolated strong storm is possible in the central and southeast, although severe weather is overall not expected today. Look for highs in the 60s and 70s today. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 425 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Look for a near seasonal day with isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today. Frontal boundary will remain stalled across the state today while an unsettled southwest flow pattern brings weak waves. The end result will be isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today. SPC has dropped the marginal risk for today in the east. That said there still could be a pocket of modest instability and shear later today through this evening. An isolated strong storm in the east is still possible, although small hail and gusty winds will be the main threats. This stalled front will bring temperatures in the 60s northwest to the 70s southeast. Northeast winds today will overall be light, however, are the right direction to bring in smoke from wildfires in Canada. Lingered smoke mention through the day for some northern and western areas. Tonight, a surface high skirts the area which may bring a brief break in showers and thunderstorms. Then a surface low starts taking shape in Wyoming which will start bringing widespread showers to the region from southwest to northeast. Lows tonight will overall be in the 40s and 50s. Perhaps some patchy fog is possible tonight into Saturday morning to areas with rain, although confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 425 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 An overall active and cooler weather pattern still looking to take shape for the long term period. This weekend still looks to see a strong surface low and broad upper level trough move through the area starting Saturday and exiting the region Sunday evening. Signals remain strong a wide area of 1 inch or more QPF is possible for a lot of the CWA. Perhaps some heavy rain is possible at times, although the overall threat of flooding remains uncertain at this time given the long duration of the rain and the antecedent dry conditions. This system appears to be mainly rain, with perhaps a few thunderstorms at times. An isolated strong storm is possible Saturday in southeastern ND. Breezy easterly winds may be found on Saturday, then becoming breezy westerly winds on Sunday. Look for temperatures in the 50s and 60s each day, with lows in the 40s and 50s. Monday and much of Tuesday look to be a transition day as the first low pressure system moves out. Temperatures may slightly warm on Monday, before cooling on Tuesday. Breezy winds are also possible at times. Lows to start the week could be quite cool, and generally in the 30s and 40s. Mid to late week continues to be monitored for another widespread precipitation event. Ensemble means still placing this low pressure system over the area, although some individual members are shifting perhaps a touch eastward. Continue to maintain likely pops for the higher confidence days mid this week. Overall the system looks warm enough for mostly rain. Still some probabilities of snow, especially across western portions, and perhaps favoring a Thursday morning timeline. This will have to continue to be monitored, and the lack of a strong push of cold air should limit any potential snow accumulations. Look for cooler temperatures too during this time period with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Areas of thick smoke are leading to MVFR and even IFR visibility across most of western and central North Dakota. Most readings are between 3 and 5 SM, although KMOT has been 2 SM over the past few hours. Smoke should clear out of the area tonight as widespread rain chances enter the region. However, that itself will create IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibility as well at times. Occasional rumbles of thunder late tonight are not out of the question at most TAF sites and chances for thunder increase through the day Saturday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Telken SHORT TERM...Anglin LONG TERM...Anglin AVIATION...Telken