990 
FXUS63 KIWX 081720
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
120 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Periodic rain showers will continue through tonight, with 
isolated thunderstorms. Mostly dry conditions are expected 
Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will be above normal for 
October, with highs gradually warming this weekend, reaching into
the lower 80s for Sunday. Rain will return Monday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

The upper low will continue to bring unsettled weather to the
region. It is currently centered over northern Illinois, with a
vort max rotating up from the southwest into northwest Indiana.
Ahead of this shortwave, convection is firing across northern
Indiana into northwest Ohio. There is just enough elevated
instability and shear to also sustain a few thunderstorms. These
showers and storms will continue to track northward this morning.
There may then be a break in activity late morning, but if skies
can partially clear allowing daytime heating to further
destabilize the lower atmosphere, scattered thunderstorms will 
again be possible this afternoon, as depicted by the CAMs. The low
will then lift into Michigan and weaken tonight, and convection
will dissipate.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

There may be a few lingering showers on the backside of the low on
Saturday, especially across southeast Michigan and northwest Ohio,
but the area will otherwise be dry with upper ridging building in.
This ridge will move over the area Saturday night into Sunday, and
subsidence, combined with increasing southerly flow, will cause
temperatures to warm into the low 80s - which is more than 10
degrees above normal. It will remain warm on Monday, then cool
down some on Tuesday as another weather system brings more rain to
the area. Dry conditions should return Tuesday night into
Wednesday as transitory high pressure moves over the region. The
high will also bring another warm up, although temperatures should
stay in the 70s. Models depict a cold front on Thursday, but there
are timing and strength differences, as usual this far out, so
just kept a slight chance of rain in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021

Broad upper level low continues to open up and drift north through
the forecast period. Convection forms during the late afternoon
and lingers into early evening tonight. Patchy fog/drizzle is
expected over NW Ohio and into MI...may be a brief period of
MVFR/IFR vsby at the terminals and have opted to keep that out of
the terminals for now. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cobb
SHORT TERM...Cobb
LONG TERM...Cobb
AVIATION...Lewis


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