871 FXUS64 KSHV 081716 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1216 PM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period. /44/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1024 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/ UPDATE... Slightly massaged afternoon high temperatures given the slower morning diurnal trend, and some of the morning high-res guidance. /44/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday/ Partly cloudy skies expected this afternoon as scattered CU develops across the region. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to continue areawide as upper-level ridging builds into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley along with high pressure at the surface. One thing of note today will be the warm temperatures. A sfc low that has developed over SW Kansas from leeside cyclogenesis, will induce southerly winds between 5 to 10 mph across the region today, with gusts up to 15 mph across portions of East Texas, SE Oklahoma, and SW Arkansas. This will give us slightly warmer conditions, with afternoon temps climbing into low 90s across the region. These temps will approach record highs for this time of year. However, despite the warm temps, it should be comfortable from a humidity standpoint, as dewpoint temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Dry conditions will continue overnight, as upper-level ridging and sfc high pressure remains over the region. Could see some passing high clouds as upper-level winds may bring in some cirrus ahead of an upper-level trough across the Rockies. The clouds, along with light southerly winds, will limit maximum radiational cooling. Expect slightly warmer overnight lows, with temps in the low to mid 60s. By Saturday, could see some more passing high cirrus along with scattered afternoon CU, but dry conditions to continue as upper ridging and sfc high pressure will remain over the region. However, southerly winds will be on the increase with a tightening sfc pressure gradient ahead of the aforementioned leeside low and a digging longwave trough across the Rockies. This will allow afternoon highs to approach record warmth again, with temps climbing into the low to mid 90s areawide. Also, expect the southerly winds to bring an uptick in humidity values, as dewpoints will likely climb into the low to mid 60s. /20/ LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Friday/ Saturday Night will be best characterized by broad ridging aloft centered across far south Texas extending north and east into the Tenn Valley. This feature will begin to flatten out and shift slowly south and east as a split longwave trough gathers steam across the Intermountain West during the day Sunday, moving into the Southern Plains late Sunday into Sunday Night. Low level moisture return will likely not begin until late Saturday Night but more so into the day Sunday and initially shall remain very shallow, confined to the lowest 5kft or so. We really do not see the column beginning to saturate until late Sunday Night across our northwest third as upper forcing begins to increase as the southern portion of the longwave trough ejects out of the OK/TX Pnhdl and into the Southern and Central Plains, taking on a negative tilt as it does. The surface reflection of this upper trough in the form of a strong cold front should rapidly move out of the Texas Hill Country on Sunday, moving east of the I-35 Corridor of OK/N TX Sunday Evening, moving south and east of the I-30 Corridor late Sunday Night towards sunrise Monday Morning. Models continue to advertise a narrow corridor of 1500-2000 J/KG of CAPE in-advance of the sfc trough Sunday Evening just west of our northwest most zones, but maintaining at least 1000- 1500 J/KG ahead of what should be a broken line of convection accompanying the sfc trough south and east of the I-30 Corridor late Sunday Night. Deep Layer shear is supportive of organized, severe convection at least near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR late Sunday Night before storms should become slightly elevated as they move south and east of the corridor closer to sunrise Monday Morning. SPC's Day 3 Outlook now outlines an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across North Texas and much of Southern and Southeast Oklahoma Sunday Evening/Sunday Night with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms near a TYR to TXK to MWT line. Models are in pretty good agreement with the sfc cold front stalling out on Monday, somewhere in the neighborhood of Deep East Texas into extreme NW LA and S AR with this feature rapidly returning northward as a warm front Monday Night into Tuesday. This seems plausible as our upper trough will have advanced into the Great Lakes Monday Night with southwesterly flow aloft continuing as another stronger and deeper upper level trough digs into the Four Corners Region of the Country on Tuesday. It appears at least right now that this feature will eject further north and east than its predecessor did by the middle of next week which will result in our region remaining in southwesterly flow aloft through at least the end of the extended period, keeping at least small rain chances in the forecast through much of next week. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 10 MLU 65 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 64 91 62 91 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 68 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 10 ELD 64 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 10 TYR 66 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 10 GGG 65 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 10 LFK 64 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 13/20/44