973 FXUS63 KILX 081517 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1017 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1017 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A stray shower will be possible this afternoon...primarily along and north of the I-74 corridor. After that, a dry and very warm weekend will be on tap across central Illinois as high temperatures soar into the 80s both Saturday and Sunday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1017 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Visibilities are rapidly improving across central Illinois this morning, with 15z/10am obs showing only patchy fog remaining from Lincoln and Taylorville eastward to Champaign and Mattoon. Allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at 10am and updated the forecast to remove fog wording. The remainder of the day will be partly sunny and warm with afternoon highs well into the 70s. Isolated showers/thunder cannot be ruled out across the N/NE KILX CWA as the upper low currently centered over the Chicago area continues to lift slowly northeastward away from the area. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Dense fog remains present across parts of west-central IL early this morning. Cloud cover roughly along/north of I-74 has prevented a northward expansion thus far. However, will need to watch cloud trends over the next several hours as any bit of clearing would allow visibilities to drop pretty quickly, especially where heavy rain fell yesterday. With that said, more cloud cover is spreading into western portions of the state, which has allowed visibilities to improve some. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for a good portion of the area until mid morning. An expansion to the advisory may be needed depending on how clouds cooperate. Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts an upper cut off low centered just north of Peoria as of 3 AM. This will continue to gradually lift northward as ridging builds over the Plains states, positioning itself over the Chicagoland area by the middle of today and then the southern half of Lake Michigan by this evening. A few lingering showers and maybe a rumble of thunder will be possible through this afternoon north of I-74 as a band of energy rotates around the southern fringes of the low. Shower activity should exit the region by later this afternoon. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, though they may be a few degrees warmer in some spots with highs in the middle to upper 70s. Fog development is possible again tonight, though high res models keep chances positioned north of I-74 in an area where some clearing may be. Added the mention of patchy fog to account for this possibility. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Warm weather lovers - this weekend is for you. Another period of summer-like weather makes an appearance this weekend as the aforementioned upper ridge amplifies and gets pushed eastward into the Midwest states. Mid-level height rises will bring near-record warmth on both Saturday and Sunday as 850 mb temperatures push toward 20C, which is +2-3 standard deviations above the NAEFS mean 850mb temperature for early October. High temperatures look to be in the middle to upper 80s with some southern cities possibly flirting with 90 on Sunday. Records could be tied or broken on Sunday, but cirrus from a system moving through the Northern Plains on Saturday will likely keep temperatures below their record values. Albeit, normal temperatures for this time of the year are typically in the upper 60s to low 70s, so we are talking high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees warmer than normal. In addition to near-record breaking high maximum temperatures, there is potential to tie or break record warmest minimum temperatures Sunday morning as well. Ridging will keep the area dry through the weekend. A couple of strong disturbances will enter the CONUS from the Pacific Ocean, crossing the Rockies by early next week. These disturbances will act to flatten the ridge while sending it further eastward out of the area, introducing a more active period. One wave in particular projected to impact the area looks to lift northeast from the southern Plains states into the Great Lakes Region during the Monday into Monday night timeframe. Deterministic models are in pretty good agreement with tracking the center of the low through eastern IA, but there are still slight temporal differences. A cold front associated with this low will work through the area later Monday, sending a line of showers and storms through the area ahead of it. Although this is still several days out, it bears watching for the possibility of strong to severe weather. A limiting factor at this point looks to be instability, but shear will be plentiful. Southerly winds will be cranking ahead of the frontal passage on Monday as a 60 kt 850 mb jet rounds the base of the trough. Forecast soundings on Monday afternoon have wind gusts up to 30-40 kts. Because of this, increased wind speeds from the NBM output during this period. A brief period of high pressure builds in on Tuesday, allowing for a dry day. This won't last long as another dynamic system takes aim at the country's midsection Wednesday into Thursday, bringing another period of showery and possibly stormy activity. Thereafter, large scale ridging looks to build in over the west-central CONUS for the end of the week into next weekend. Temperatures next week will remain unseasonably warm with the CPC's 6-10 day outlook highlighting above normal temperatures into next weekend and beyond. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 556 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Dense fog is present across a good portion of the area this morning, which has resulted in IFR to LIFR flight conditions. Fog is expected to dissipate by mid morning with gradual improvement back to VFR. Winds remain light today and tonight with a direction generally west- southwest during the day becoming southeast overnight. There is the possibility for another round of fog to develop late tonight into Saturday morning north of I-74. However, due to low confidence in location opted to not include in TAFs at this time. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 308 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Record high temperatures are possible on Sunday. Here are the current records and forecast highs: Sunday October 10 Record High Forecast High Bloomington..... 87 (2010) 87 Champaign....... 86 (1962) 87 Charleston...... 88 (2010) 86 Decatur......... 89 (1938) 87 Galesburg....... 87 (1962) 84 Jacksonville.... 90 (1963) 87 Lincoln......... 87 (1962) 87 Olney........... 89 (1928) 88 Peoria.......... 87 (1938) 86 Springfield..... 89 (1963) 87 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Barnes SYNOPSIS...Barnes SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...NMB CLIMATE...NMB