147 FXUS61 KBUF 081436 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1036 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An approaching frontal system will bring a few showers to far western areas today and to the rest of the region during the weekend. Temperatures will continue to average well above normal through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Upper low currently centered over northern Illinois will transition to an open wave as it continues to drift northeast across the Great Lakes region through the period. Chances for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm should remain just across far western New York today with very little eastward movement to the upper low and the main moisture axis. Somewhat better shower chances edge a bit farther to the east tonight, but probably not getting much farther east than the Genesee Valley. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper ridge axis will weaken and shift east of the area over New England as a shortwave trough dampens out while passing by to our northwest through the central Great Lakes on Saturday. Although the better dynamics associated with this feature remain northwest of our area, it will be close enough to bring the chance for some showers from the Genesee Valley/northern Finger Lakes westward, with Lkly PoPs remaining just west of far western NY closer to the better forcing. Shortwave trough continues to weaken Saturday night as it moves northeast of Lake Huron. This will allow any residual light showers to follow suit, retreating north of the Canadian border during the overnight. Temperatures will be held down somewhat due to cloud cover and precip, however daytime highs will still be some 10 degrees above average with highs mainly in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Ridging builds back across the region for Sunday and Monday providing a dry second half of the weekend and start to the new work week. Temperatures will continue to slowly climb as highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday, further ascend into the mid to upper 70s for Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Main story will continue to be the well above average warmth that will continue right through the long term period. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure centered over New England will provide dry and warm conditions Monday night through Tuesday, although forcing owed to the next shortwave trough approaching the area may bring a couple light showers to far western NY during the latter part of Tuesday as it follows a similar track to the previous. Weakening upper level trough and associated weak surface cold front progged to cross the region sometime Tuesday night and/or Wednesday bringing the next chance for some showers to western and northcentral NY. High pressure then returns drying things out toward the tail end of the period. As previously mentioned, temperatures will be well above normal through the period. Tuesday will be the warmest day as highs climb into the mid and upper 70s for a second day in a row, with slightly cooler readings found across the higher terrain. Cloud cover and possible showers Wednesday followed by weak cool advection on Thursday in the wake of the cold frontal passage will lower temperatures several degrees, with daytime highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is still well above average as we approach mid October. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR weather will be found throughout the majority of the region through tonight. The exception will be some leftover MVFR based stratus in the Southern Tier through midday...and possibly some MVFR cigs late tonight. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR but with scattered showers. Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... East-northeast winds at 10-15 knots are expected today. Strongest winds will be across western Lake Ontario with some enhancement due to the lake breeze. Winds shift to the southeast and increase tonight and may approach small craft criteria across eastern Lake Ontario late tonight into Saturday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...RSH MARINE...JLA/TMA