473 FXUS66 KMFR 081033 CCA AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 332 AM PDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Updated Fire Weather Discussion. .SHORT TERM...Satellite imagery shows low clouds and some patchy fog developing along the coast and inland into some western valleys and along the western slopes of the Southern Oregon Cascades. Radar imagery shows a few showers across eastern Modoc and southeastern Lake Counties. Mild to cool temperatures over the area along with chances for light precipitation, especially over western portions of the CWA, are expected today into the weekend. Today, the upper level trough over the area will deepen and a front will move onshore. With this pattern, expect cool temperatures across the area. The front will weaken as it moves onshore. However models continue to indicate that it will bring light rain over the coastal waters this morning then to areas along the coast and in the coastal mountains by this afternoon. Across southeast Lake and eastern Modoc expect some continued showers today. This evening, expect some increased shower chances west of the Cascades and across northern California with the front weakening as it pushes onshore and a weak surface low moving along the northern California coast. Shower activity is forecast to then decrease overnight, except for some lingering light showers along the coast. Inland of the coast, models indicate there will be some partial clearing late tonight into Saturday morning with temperatures to lowering into the mid to upper 30s for some valleys west of the Cascades. These conditions along with light winds may allow for patchy frost to develop in some western valleys, including in Josephine, Jackson and western Siskiyou Counties. Areas east of the Cascades are expected to see low temperatures in the 20s Saturday morning. On Saturday, a weak ridge builds in place with mild temperatures and likely dry weather. Another relatively cool night is in store Saturday night/Sunday morning. However, an incoming front will allow some high clouds to move across western portions of the area Sunday morning, resulting in low temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s across western valleys. On Sunday, a frontal system will move into the area from the northwest. Light rain may reach northwest portions of the area in Coos and and northwest Douglas Counties late Saturday night with light precipitation spreading inland Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon. Then expect additional showers Sunday evening into Monday as the upper trough moves over the area. The best chance for light precipitation will be from the Southern Oregon Cascades west but models support chances for light precipitation over the east side and across Northern California as well. Although, not an exceptionally strong front, this front and upper trough will bring light precipitation along with a cool airmass and lowering snow levels. Snow levels will start out around 8000 feet Sunday and will quickly drop to 5000 feet by Sunday evening then to around 3500 feet Monday morning as the precipitation become more showery in nature. This means that there could be some light snowfall over middle and high mountain passes including Highway 140, Willamette Pass, and possibly even Siskiyou Summit on Interstate 5. Any snowfall amounts are expected to be very light with relatively minimal to minor impacts. .LONG TERM...Models and ensembles show a weak ridge building into the area Tuesday with dry conditions. Then another front moves into the region on Wednesday, resulting in additional chances for rain. Weak ridging may build in early Thursday. However, another front approaches the region late Thursday. Confidence is low on the track of this system, with some model solutions indicating a slightly stronger ridge and keeping precipitation mainly to the north. Will continue to monitor and update the forecast as confidence increases. && .AVIATION...08/12Z TAFs...Early this morning, patchy IFR is present along the coast. Meantime, valley IFR extends from southern Curry County across Josephine County into southern and eastern Douglas County with mountain obscuration. An additional area of mountain obscuration covers the southern Oregon Cascades along the border of Jackson and Klamath counties. These regions of lowered flight conditions should improve through the morning, with VFR then expected to prevail across the region into the afternoon. Wind speeds and mid to upper level cloudiness are expected to increase through the afternoon ahead of an approaching front. Rain is expected with areas of MVFR along the coast by late afternoon. Areas of rain and MVFR with terrain obscurations should spread inland to the Cascades through the evening, while conditions remain VFR on the east side. -DW && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Friday 8 October 2021...Subsiding seas will remain steep early this morning. The approach of a weakening front will shift winds to southerly this morning. Advisory conditions are expected in the outer waters north of Gold Beach this afternoon and evening. A fresh swell becomes dominant Saturday as high pressure briefly builds into the waters. Another front is expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with strongest winds behind the front Sunday morning into Monday morning out of the north to northwest. A steep combination of wind wave and northwest swell will likely become high on Sunday and continue building into Monday to a peak of 10 to 14 feet. -DW && .FIRE WEATHER...A cool and unsettled weather regime will remain in place through the coming week. A weak front will bring light precipitation to the area today, mainly to the coast, Coast Range, and Umpqua Basin. Wetting rains are possible, mainly for coastal areas. Saturday will be dry. A stronger front will bring more widespread precipitation to the area Sunday, with best chances from the Cascades west and Siskiyous north. Showers will continue Sunday night into Monday. Also expect cooler temperatures Sunday into Monday along with lowering snow levels. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR... CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters... Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PDT this morning for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ350-370. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ370-376. $$ CC