268 FXUS65 KVEF 081025 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 325 AM PDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system moving in from the Pacific will produce wet weather across much of the region today along with strong south winds over parts of southeast California and south central Nevada. Cool and unsettled weather will continue Saturday followed by dry and tranquil conditions Sunday. A colder weather system will drop in from the north Monday and Tuesday, bringing strong north winds and temperatures lowering well below seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. A band of moisture streaming from southern California up across southern Nevada into southwest Utah will likely produce a 3-4 hour period of stratiform light rainfall across parts of eastern San Bernardino and Clark counties before 10 AM PDT this morning. Amounts will generally be less than 0.10" for these areas except the higher elevations of the Spring Mountains could extract 0.50-0.75" of rainfall according to the latest QPF estimates. This moisture plume was preceding a trough off the West Coast which will swing inland and lift across south central Nevada this afternoon and evening. This will push the moisture plume over northwest Arizona through early afternoon as it slides toward the Four Corners region by this evening. The plateau country of northern Mohave County may see 0.25- 0.50". Meanwhile Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye and Lincoln counties will see scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms as the fast moving trough destabilizes the air mass over these areas late this morning through the afternoon. Showers will gradually diminish late tonight as the trough lifts away to the northeast. In addition to the showers, this system will produce widespread gusty winds over 40 mph from the southern Owens Valley and northwest San Bernardino County up across the southern half of Death Valley and most of south central Nevada. The Spring Mountains and Lincoln County were added to the Wind Advisory for today. Angel Peak as already been gusting 45-57 mph since late Thursday evening and high res models indicate winds will increase especially across the northeast facing slopes this morning through the afternoon. HREF and ECMWF ensembles leave little doubt that much of central and northern Lincoln County will see widespread gusts between 40 and 50 mph this afternoon. This may also lead to a few thunderstorms possibly producing gusts over 60 mph. Saturday will see an additional low pressure system drop down through southern Nevada. This system was digging off the Pacific Northwest Coast this morning. This will bring a reinforcing shot of cool air and north breezes down through our region, but moisture will generally be limited to eastern Nevada and far northwest Arizona. However, the cold pool moving over Clark County in the afternoon could produce a few flurries in parts of the Spring Mountains above 8500 feet. Temperatures will drop about 6 to 10 degrees today and another couple degrees Saturday, bringing the region about 10 degrees below seasonal normals. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday. Models showing a break in the progressive pattern Sunday with less wind and slightly warmer temperatures. A significant change to colder, windy and showery weather expected Monday and Tuesday as a deep trough digs into the Great Basin. Conditions that will bring impacts include strong winds developing Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday. First freeze of the Fall Season likely for Lincoln, northern Mohave and central Nye Counties, as well as the Owens Valley. High temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal with some record low maximum temperatures being threatened Tuesday. Excluding the mountains of northern Lincoln County where several inches of snow are possible, precipitation amounts still look light but precipitation will come in the form of snow down to 3500-4000 feet. Great Basin will lie under a dry northwest flow Wednesday and Thursday. North winds look to linger, especially within the lower Colorado River both days while temperatures gradually warm. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Light rain and ceilings around 6 kft will occur this morning along with gusty south-southwest winds around 25 kts. Rain should clear out to the east before noon, but gusty winds will persist through today into early this evening. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...A Pacific weather system will move across the region today producing widespread light rain across areas near and south of I-15 this morning through early afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers will develop across northern Inyo County and around central Nevada late this morning through the afternoon. Widespread gusty south-southwest winds 35-45 knots can be expected across much of the region north of I-15. Showers will diminish across east central Nevada late this evening and wind speeds will decrease after sunset as northwest winds 10-15 knots push down through central Nevada late tonight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Adair LONG TERM...Pierce For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter