304 FXUS62 KCAE 081019 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 619 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled conditions will continue into the early portions of the weekend as an upper level trough moves through the region. Drying occurs by Sunday and into early next week as the upper low shifts eastward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Ongoing weather and pattern is fairly similar to what we have seen the past couple of days. Synoptically, the closed low that has been driving our weather has lifted into northern Illinois, with a reinforcing vort max moving into the southern MS Valley. This is driving the trough axis closer to our area today, and will be the primary forcing mechanism for widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. This same trough is keeping southwesterly flow over the region, with PWs of 1.6-1.8" common across the area. The surface high across the northeast continues to ridge into the region, creating wedge conditions across the region. These things will continue through the day, and result in a fairly active day. Currently, there are widespread showers and thunderstorms across central GA associated with a surface boundary/theta-e ridge. The rain is expected to expand and continue pushing into the region over the next couple of hours, and should last through early afternoon. Thereafter, the primary area of rainfall should be into our eastern counties, with scattered showers possibly redeveloping across the area behind this. Given wedge conditions and expectation of low clouds, across through the afternoon, highs are expected to be similar to yesterday and only top out in the upper 70s at best. Severe weather isn't expected this afternoon, but heavy rainfall is possible. Considered a Flash Flood Watch for Lincoln and McCormick counties because they had heavy rain yesterday. Opted against it at this time given uncertainty as to where heaviest rainfall will set up. By tonight, the trough axis will continue pushing towards the region, and will likely help at least scattered showers persist into the overnight. Low clouds are expected to develop again, and as a result lows should stay pretty warm - in the mid/upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Saturday and Saturday night: The upper trough axis will be pushing through the cwa during the day, then moves east Saturday night. A surface low will be situated off the NC coast during the day, and the circulation around that should keep the deeper moisture further north across NC. Even so, some moisture should still be able to remain over eastern and northeastern counties, enough to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Drier air moving into the southwestern cwa should help limit any shower activity there, but an isolated shower still can not be ruled out during the day. By Saturday night, the upper trough will be further off the coast, and drier air begins overspreading the entire cwa, shutting off any rainfall chances for the majority of the overnight. With clouds beginning to break across the southwestern cwa, highs on Saturday may reach back into the lower 80s across portions of the CSRA, with the majority of the Midlands only reaches the mid to upper 70s due to more cloud cover potentially. Overnight lows in the lower 60s. By Sunday, drier air begins to dominate, with deeper moisture pushed closer to the coast and offshore. Upper ridging should begin building, and this will bring mostly sunny skies and temperatures around 80. Lows Sunday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Much of the longer term period will be dry as the deeper moisture remains east of the area and the upper ridge axis builds across the cwa. Temperatures generally near or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Restrictions expected to continue through the period as weak wedging dominates the region. Rain is encroaching upon AGS/DNL as I write this and should begin impacting both sites within the next hour or so. This will then spread over towards CAE/CUB/OGB by around 13z, and should impact all sites through early afternoon. While this develops, CIG restrictions are widespread across the region. IFR to occasional LIFR CIGs have been noted at each site, and with widespread mid-level clouds pushing into the region, it seems unlikely that this stratus will be in a hurry to get anywhere. I expect CIG restrictions to last much of the day given the rain and the weak wedging present across the region. There may be a few hours where we break out this evening, but models are notoriously too quick to break stratus. In addition to the CIG issues, any heavier shower or storm that forms will likely bring with it VIS restrictions. Those are uncertain across much of the area, with the best threat being at AGS/DNL this morning. By tonight, I expect all sites to see restrictions again. CIG issues seem likely, but I can't rule out aerial fog developing. The low-level jet looks weak, and surface winds light. If we get some breaks and possible clearing by late evening, some fog may be favored. Either way, it looks like another night of at least IFR restrictions is likely. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Patchy fog or low stratus possible each morning as deeper moisture moves over the region. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms possible through Friday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for GAZ040. SC...Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for SCZ018. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...