527 FXUS63 KGLD 080950 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 350 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 350 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Fire Weather Watch is now in effect Saturday afternoon for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado as well as Sherman, Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties in Kansas. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night) Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Today-tonight...an elongated upper level trough oriented north-south along the west coast of the country early this morning will steadily move east through tonight reaching the northern plains southwest into the desert southwest. High clouds will move across the area ahead of this feature with no precipitation expected. It will continue to be rather warm for this time of year with high temperatures in the low to upper 80s. Low temperatures are expected to remain mild for early October with readings in the low to upper 50s, mostly due to the expected high cloud cover. Saturday-Saturday night...the above mentioned upper trough continues its move to the east reaching a Minnesota to New Mexico line by sunrise Sunday morning. High clouds continue to move across the area during the day with some decrease from north to south overnight. At the surface, low pressure is forecast near or just south of Interstate 70 by days end then well away from the area during the night as a cold front moves through. Gusty west to southwest winds are expected during the day, mainly from Flagler to Goodland and Oakley west while to the north light northwest winds are expected. For the overnight hours, northwest winds gusting up to 25 mph or so are expected. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s across far eastern Colorado, lower 80s to lower 90s elsewhere, hottest from Hill City to Leoti south. A record or near record high temperature is possible in Hill City. Low temperatures fall into the lower 40s in far eastern Colorado, mid 40s to lower 50s elsewhere. Sunday-Sunday night...the upper trough continues east reaching the Tri-State area during the afternoon, continuing east overnight. There is enough moisture in the 850-500mb layer skirting across those south of the interstate to support a slight chance for rain showers during the day, moving east and about out of the area after midnight. Northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph are expected during the day, decreasing to speeds under 10 mph during the night. High temperatures will be much cooler with readings in the 65 to 75 degree range. Low temperatures will also be much cooler compared to the past few days with readings in the mid 30s to lower 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday) Issued at 220 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 The long term period is generally dry short of the system that will move through the area Tuesday/Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to be near to below average for much of the period. Monday starts out with clear and dry conditions as the Tri-State area sits under small amplitude ridging aloft inbetween the previous trough and the new one forming and moving through the Western CONUS. Temperatures look to reach the mid to upper 70's. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions may be possible mainly along and west of the Colorado border as winds gust to near 25mph and RH drops to near 20%. Tuesday on gets a bit uncertain due to the next upper trough and system that would be moving in from the west. Guidance currently has the upper trough swinging through the four corners during the day on Tuesday with a surface low taking shape just east of the Front Range. This setup would still have the Tri-State area warm into the mid to upper 70's across much of the area but could see an increase in the winds as the pressure gradient tightens and the flow increases aloft. The dry conditions would then give way to chances for showers and storms during the evening and nighttime hours as the surface low and associated cold front move to the east and moisture gets pulled into the area from the south. As mentioned above there is some uncertainty as guidance has been inconsistent on the placement of the trough and surface low as well as the depth of the trough. Ensemble anomalies show this as well with rather large anomalies in the depth in the trough. There is less anomaly with the location but still enough worth considering for a slower and/or more southerly track. With the winds, precipitation, and temperatures fairly dependent on the track, the current forecasted temps, wind, and precip may change in the coming days. However, looking across the difference solutions, there is a high chance the area would see stronger than average winds, some precipitation, and cooler temperatures as this system passes. Wednesday will depend on how the trough and low move off to the north/northeast as the area could be in the dry slot of the low or be in the region of wrap around moisture. Current forecast mirrors more of the wrap around solution where the temperatures would be cooler in the low to mid 60's and some light rain is present early in the day. But if the dry solution prevails, the daylight hours would see mostly clear skies and temperatures could warm to be near 70 or in the 70's. Thursday and Friday are currently forecasted to have the Central CONUS under a broad trough aloft with the area under northwest flow. While that could give the area some instability, the forecast calls for dry air to move in from the southwest once the prior trough and surface low lift off to the northeast. This will help the area stay dry and mostly clear though temperatures could remain a bit cooler than average depending on how much cooler air moves in behind the front. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and variable wind at taf issuance will establish a southeasterly component at speeds of 8-11kts late this morning through much of the night. Toward the end of the period winds begin to veer to the southwest at speeds approaching 10kts. KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light and variable wind at taf issuance will establish a southeasterly component at speeds up to 10kts from 20z through the rest of the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected along and west of Highway 27 this afternoon. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday afternoon along and south of Interstate 70. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties in Colorado as well as Sherman, Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties in Kansas. Outdoor burning is discouraged. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible along and west of Highway 27 Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 315 AM MDT Fri Oct 8 2021 A record or near record high temperature is possible at the following location Saturday, October 9: Hill City..........90 degrees set back in 1965 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for KSZ013-027-041-042. CO...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for COZ253-254. NE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...KAK AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99 CLIMATE...99