049 FXUS63 KJKL 080839 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 439 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 325 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 Latest analysis shows an upper low over the upper Mid West, a surface boundary over the SE states with several areas of low pressure along the front, and surface high pressure over the Mid Atlantic. There's an embedded short wave moving through the TN valley this morning which is resulting in an area of showers over far SE KY near the TN/VA line. The upper low will open up today and move N/NE towards the Great Lakes region by later tonight. Meanwhile, the upper ridge to our west will start to nose east. That will be an eastward shift in Pops today, with far eastern KY having the highest chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Afternoon high temps will be in the mid to upper 70s. Pops diminish overnight and expect some clearing in the clouds from west to east. Anticipate fog to be a bit more widespread overnight, especially out west where there will be more clearing. Overnight lows will range from the middle 50s in the valleys to near 60 at the ridge tops. On Saturday the trough will move further east while the ridge starts to nose into the area. Most of the area will be dry with partly cloudy skies, although some afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms are possible over far SE KY closer to the upper level trough axis. Afternoon high temps will remain above normal in the upper 70s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 439 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 Models are in fair agreement over the overall pattern through the extended, though some model differences in the handling of small details emerge as time goes on, leading to differences in predicted sensible weather. Early on through the latter part of the weekend and into the beginning of the work week, we see upper level ridging build over the area as a trough makes its way eastward away from the region. A wave, initially over the Four Corners region near the start of the period, moves across the Southern Plains before eventually turning northeast towards the Upper Great Lakes late Monday into Tuesday, helping to nudge the ridge further east. An associated low at the surface follows a similar trajectory, dragging a front towards the Ohio Valley as it does so. After some breif height rises aloft after the passage of the initial wave, a large low moves from the Plains towards the Upper Midwest, supporting a large low at the surface that drags another, stronger, front towards our area to end the work week. Regarding sensible weather, we stay mainly dry through the majority of the early part of the period. However, there is a bit of uncertainty Monday/Tuesday, as the first system moves through the area. The GFS, though stronger with the upper level wave, has it keeping further north, and the precip here very limited. The ECMWF on the other hand, has the better support a bit further south, and shows more rain. For now, have kept the slight PoPs given by the NBM in the west through Monday evening. There's a bit more confidence over the second system actually bringing unsettled weather, with timing being the detail more in question. The GFS is, unsurprisingly, faster with the upper low and associated surface features, bringing the rain in faster. There's also disagreement over how the upper low evolves beyond late Thursday, which also leads to differences in the timing of rain as well. Have stayed closer to the NBM solution, bringing in PoPs Thursday evening, however suspect that this could be delayed some depending on how things trend. For temperatures, things stay above normal through most of the period, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Temperatures are currently forecast to drop slightly by the end of the period on Friday, with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s, but are subject to the same uncertainty as the PoPs in that time frame. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI OCT 8 2021 Patchy fog and low stratus will impact the TAF sites this morning, with IFR and occasional LIFR possible. Conditions will improve later this morning with VFR returning by this afternoon, although scattered thunderstorms may result in brief flight restrictions. Winds will be light and variable through the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...CMF