144 FXUS61 KBTV 080805 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 405 AM EDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Valley fog this morning will give way to another beautiful day with above normal temperatures. A backdoor cold front will push cooler air westward into our area later this evening. Near normal temperatures and somewhat cloudier conditions are expected over the weekend, followed by unseasonable warmth on Monday and Tuesday. Slightly lower temperatures and a few showers may be seen midweek, but temperatures will remain above normal for mid October. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday...A persistence forecast has been made for today. Today should play out remarkably similar to yesterday, from the valley fog to the pocket of stratus traversing the Adirondacks and south-central Vermont this morning. Anticipate pleasant afternoon conditions with clearing skies and high temperatures near 70 to the mid 70s. The main difference will be the switch from north to easterly flow throughout the day as a backdoor cold front moves into the region later this evening into the overnight hours. For tonight, gradually increasing southeasterly winds are expected, with northeast winds still in the northern St. Lawrence valley. Gap winds in the Greens and some channeling in the Champlain Valley could allow for some 15 to 20 mph gusts overnight into the afternoon in the favored areas. We could also see some pockets of drizzle in Windsor and Orange County overnight into early Saturday morning as some maritime air is advected in the southeasterly flow, but the likelihood of widespread drizzle seems low at this time. Low temperatures generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Strong 1032mb surface high shifts from New Brunswick towards Nova Scotia, keeping dry, stable air entrenched over much of New England. Saturday will be partly to mostly cloudy, especially across northern New York, with high temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday...A shortwave trough will traverse the North Country during this period, causing an increase in cloud cover but low chances of precipitation. A fairly deep layer above the surface will remain dry under the influence of ridging with the strong surface high still parked near Nova Scotia. Forecast soundings as a result suggest a thick high cloud layer with dry air below in many areas. However, northern New York, mainly north and west of the Adirondacks, should see a period of low clouds with a few showers possible Sunday morning in response to the trough where the ridge to the east has less influence. These clouds along with increasing southwesterly flow aloft will keep low temperatures relatively mild in the 50s, with other locations across the North Country tending to be closer to seasonable norms dropping down into the 40s. As with Saturday, we will continue to see an easterly component to the wind over much of Vermont. Therefore, a repeat of low clouds in portions of eastern Vermont is possible, although it looks like trajectories start to become more southwesterly moving through the day. A mostly cloudy sky is offered for much of the period but would not be surprised if there are adjustments needed. Again, precipitation chances remain low (20% or less) through Sunday. Temperatures should remain above normal by about 3 to 6 degrees with 60s in most locations for highs. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 AM EDT Friday...Outside of a weak low pressure system moving over the North Country on Wednesday, the long term will be consistently quite warm and dry with a deep longwave trough out in the western US supporting downstream ridging over our area through the rest of the week. Noted that GFS 2-meter temperature anomalies exceed 20 degrees on Tuesday in northern portions of the region, with even the ensemble mean only a few degrees lower, suggesting potential for upper 70s to low 80s high temperatures. For now, continue to go higher than the NBM on Monday and Tuesday with temperatures remaining a 5 or so degrees lower than potential values. Tuesday is particular promising for warmth as the 850 millibar thermal ridge centers over our area during the afternoon and some drier air at the top of the mixed layer could help further boost temperatures. Wednesday shower chances are higher as one goes west and still are low (30% or less). Some of the latest model data supports trending chances upward across northern areas given the track of the best dynamical forcing, but the system will not pack much punch with rainfall. The main impact will be briefly cooler conditions. Then quiet and warm conditions return for Thursday, although the air mass will likely be less warm than on Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Through 06Z Saturday...Valley fog is developing, with several areas already reporting visibilities less than 1SM. Some stratus clouds around 2000-2500ft agl are currently positioned across SLK and RUT, and this should continue through about 10-12Z. SLK should fog in the moment these clouds depart, but southeasterly drainage at RUT should prevent fog development. Fog will gradually lift after 13Z and conditions will trend VFR with mostly clear skies. Winds are currently calm, will become variable to northerly around 5 knots or less towards 14Z, and begin to transition to east or southeaster winds beyond 00Z with an increase to about 5 to 7 knots. Outlook... Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Columbus Day: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Haynes NEAR TERM...Haynes SHORT TERM...Kutikoff LONG TERM...Kutikoff AVIATION...Duell/Haynes