725 FXUS63 KBIS 080559 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1259 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 Minimal updates needed at this time. A few showers will linger across portions of the state. This should be more isolated in coverage, with little QPF expected. Weak instability could provide for a few isolated thunderstorms as well tonight, although confidence remains low. Showers and a few thunderstorms still look to be possible for Friday, along with cooler temperatures. Overall the forecast remains on track. UPDATE Issued at 1001 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 For late evening update have broadbrushed isolated showers to the west as hit and miss light showers continue to move through. Updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Some light showers continue to scamper through central North Dakota. This will continue through this evening. Main change to the forecast was to add some patchy smoke over the northwest. Visibility has dipped down to around 6 miles over that area at multiple reporting stations, and latest guidance keeps it around into tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Main forecast issue in the short term period will be small chances for showers and thunderstorms. Currently, a cold front extended from the Turtle Mountains south southeast to just east of Bismarck. Very light shower activity was occurring just behind the front. Later this afternoon and this evening, as the front meanders slowly eastward, there will probably be some increase in the shower activity east of the Highway 83 corridor. Although an isolated thundershower can not be ruled out, the probability seem pretty low with meager lapse rates and abundant CIN. The frontal boundary stalls tonight east of Bismarck. Lows tonight will range from the lower 40s to lower 50s. Friday, the frontal boundary remains around southern ND and this may be the focus for some afternoon shower/thunderstorm activity. At this time, the threat of severe storms looks minimal. SPC has adjusted their marginal threat of severe storms to include mainly the far south central into the James River Valley. There could be a few stronger storms here Friday afternoon/evening if there is enough forcing to overcome some lower level capping issues. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021 Shower and thunderstorm chances highlight the extended forecast period. Friday night, stronger forcing does arrive in the forecast area but at this time it looks like it will be mainly after the stronger instability over the southeast CWA begins to diminish. It will however, provide sufficient forcing for an area of widespread showers, and possibly some thunder Friday night through Saturday as an upper level trough propagates from the the western U.S. into the northern plains and closes off over the forecast area Saturday. Uncertainty remains in the eventual track of the system and placement of qpf, thus we will stick with our given pop/qpf guidance. With the upper low closing off over the forecast area on Saturday, the shower and possible thunderstorm activity will remain over the forecast area through Saturday, and depending on the speed of the upper low, possibly into Saturday night. We then dry out a bit Sunday into Monday, before another upper level trough makes it's way from the western U.S. into the plains states in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe. There does look to be better moisture available with both systems. This can be seen in the NBM ensemble probabilities of qpf. It's been a while since we've seen probabilities of an inch of qpf around 20 percent. Although not earth shattering, they're showing up for most stations across the forecast area. All we can say about the mid-week system is stay tuned. From the cluster analysis for Thursday afternoon, it looks like there are questions about the amplitude of the downstream ridge over the upper midwest, as well as the location and timing of the upper trough ejecting into the plains. A wide range of solutions remains possible, both wet and dry for the forecast area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021 VFR to periods of MVFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Tonight look for mainly VFR conditions, although a few lingering showers may be found at times. Friday then sees scattered showers and a few thunderstorms at times across the area. This could bring some brief MVFR conditions at times. Shower activity becomes more isolated Friday evening, although lingering cloud cover could bring some MVFR ceilings. Over northwest North Dakota, some wildfire smoke may reduce visibility at times tonight and possibly into Friday. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Anglin SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM...TWH AVIATION...Anglin