649 
FXUS64 KSJT 080544
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

Expect quiet weather tonight and Friday. The winds will be from 
the south the next 24 hours and gusty at times. Overnight lows 
will be in the 60s and hot temperatures Saturday with highs in the
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Oct 7 2021

An ongoing 500mb ridge over Texas should keep warmer than normal 
temperatures and dry conditions in place through the weekend. 
Sunday night into Monday morning, a fast-moving shortwave trough 
is expected to move through the southern and central Plains, 
dragging a surface cold front with it. Models differ quite a bit 
on the location and timing of rain, if any, with this system. The 
12Z GFS is the driest, while the 00Z ECMWF still gives decent QPF.
Regardless, both models show this system moving quickly through 
the region and departing by Monday afternoon. For now, PoPs were 
kept to 20-30 percent for the Sunday night period, with the better
chances across our eastern and northern areas. On the tail of 
this system is an even stronger one that looks to occlude over the
northern and central Plains and push a stronger cold front into 
Texas on Wednesday. Although there are still timing and evolution 
differences amongst the global models, they all show better rain 
chances and cooler conditions for midweek. For now, chances will 
be kept to 20-30 percent and further refined in upcoming 
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Oct 8 2021

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals the next 24 
hours. South to southwest winds will gust 20 to 25 knots after
15Z Friday but will diminish around sunset. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 94  65  93  65 /   0   0   0   0 
San Angelo 	 93  61  92  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Junction 	 93  59  92  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Brownwood 	 94  60  92  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Sweetwater 	 95  65  94  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Ozona      	 90  60  89  63 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...24